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来源类型 | The Current Column |
规范类型 | 评论 |
East Africa’s highway to oil | |
Kappel, Robert; Babette Never | |
发表日期 | 2015-01-23 |
出版年 | 2015 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | A wave of oil and gas euphoria is sweeping Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. In February 2015, the Ugandan Government will decide who will build the country's only refinery. |
正文 | Bonn, Hamburg, 26 January 2015. A wave of oil and gas euphoria is sweeping Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. In February 2015, the Ugandan Government will decide who will build the country's only refinery. European, Chinese and Canadian oil companies intend to begin oil production in Kenya as early as 2016 and in Uganda two years later. Once export and/or processing activities begin in the two countries, they will be able to significantly increase their gross domestic product, enabling them to go from being nations with few natural resources to commodity-exporting countries. However, there is a very real risk of them falling under the Nigerian resource curse, of widespread environmental damage, and of uncertain price trends on the global market.
The East African countries are pushing ahead with the expansion of fossil-fuel energy production in order to maximise state revenues. They also plan to develop their own oil and gas markets, as they all currently depend on imports. When oil and gas prices were high, these states had to spend more foreign currency on energy imports. For instance, Kenya imported over 1.5 million tonnes of crude oil and more than 1 million tonnes of oil products (including petrol and kerosene) in 2012. Estimates put oil reserves at 3.5 to 4 billion (159-litre) barrels on the Ugandan side of Lake Albert and around 2 billion on the Congolese side, while Kenya's 1 billion or so barrels worth of oil is spread across several oil fields in the north of the country. At the same time, 1.4 trillion cubic metres of natural gas reserves have been discovered in Tanzania. Huge investment will be needed if the country is to forge ahead with developing its own fossil-fuel energy supplies; experts estimate that identifying and developing crude-oil and natural-gas fields will cost somewhere in the region of USD 100 billion. The planned Uganda-Kenya pipeline, set to stretch some 1,300 km to the port of Lamu, will be an expensive (at least USD 4 billion) and technically demanding undertaking. The wax-like oil will have to be constantly heated to around 40 °C to make it flow. For this region, these tremendous investments represent an economic programme of epic proportions. Nigerian resource curse strikes again? The only way for the East African countries to avoid history repeating itself is for them to take complementary measures and ensure that they use foreign currency flows to boost industrial and agricultural production as well. A strategic, targeted approach that includes the setting up of commodity funds and an examination of the expected economic consequences (such as the risk of currency appreciation) and environmental damage is more likely to be seen in Uganda than in Kenya. The governments of both nations are getting ahead of themselves with their expectations. Impending environmental damage Volatile energy markets In addition to conducting cost-benefit analyses, governments should devote more attention to the environmental problems posed by oil and gas production. Oil offers higher incomes in the short term, but has environmental consequences in the long term which may also destabilise the tourism industry, the region’s economic mainstay. While all East African countries are also investing in renewable energy sources, having crude oil is still a status symbol. Robert Kappel, President Emeritus and Senior Research Fellow, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies |
URL | https://www.die-gdi.de/en/the-current-column/article/east-africas-highway-to-oil/ |
来源智库 | German Development Institute (Germany) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/501269 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kappel, Robert,Babette Never. East Africa’s highway to oil. 2015. |
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