全球智库信息集成服务系统

• The KMD needs to further downscale seasonal forecasts spatially to locally homogeneous rainfall zones or to weather-station level so that small-scale local variations in rainfall patterns can be taken into account. This would provide farmers with better information on their local rainfall patterns.
  

• The MoA and MLD should institutionalise their role in guiding the KMD in the communication of forecasts to farmers and pastoralists. As the climate information needs of smallholders are not adequately addressed by the KMD, this demand-driven approach recently adopted by the ministries as a pilot scheme may increase the influence of the agricultural sector on the design and content of forecasts and should therefore be continued.
  
• In collaboration with the KMD and the Ministry of Information and Communication, the MoA and MLD should explore the use of telephone short message services to complement existing radio services for the communication of ready-to-use forecasts.
  
• The MoA and MLD should hold pre-season forecast workshops at which county agricultural extension officers and officials of local meteorological stations can discuss downscaled seasonal forecasts and the implications for local agricultural production with farmers. Such local-level partnerships and facilitated farmergroup interactions can influence the strategies pursued by farmers in response to forecasts.

Through these interventions, smallholder farmers are likely to regain confidence in seasonal forecasts and use them in agricultural production.