G2TT
来源类型Faculty Working Papers
规范类型工作论文
来源IDCID Faculty Working Paper No. 346
Jordan: The Elements of a Growth Strategy
Ricardo Hausmann; Tim O'Brien; Miguel Angel Santos; Ana Grisanti; Semiray Kasoolu; Nikita Taniparti; Jorge Tapia; and Ricardo Villasmil
发表日期2019-02
出版年2019
摘要

In the decade 1999-2009, Jordan experienced an impressive growth acceleration, tripling its exports and increasing income per capita by 38%. Since then, a number of external shocks that include the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009), the Arab Spring (2011), the Syrian Civil War (2011), and the emergence of the Islamic State (2014) have affected Jordan in significant ways and thrown its economy out of balance. Jordan’s debt-to-GDP ratio has ballooned from 55% (2009) to 94% (2018). The economy has continued to grow amidst massive fiscal adjustment and balance of payments constraints, but the large increase in population – by 50% between 2008 and 2017 – driven by massive waves of refugees has resulted in a 12% cumulative loss in income per capita (2010-2017). Moving forward, debt sustainability will require not only continued fiscal consolidation but also faster growth and international support to keep interest payments on the debt contained. We have developed an innovative framework to align Jordan’s growth strategy with its changing factor endowments. The framework incorporates service industries into an Economic Complexity analysis, utilizing the Dun and Bradstreet database, together with an evaluation of the evolution of Jordan’s comparative advantages over time. Combining several tools to identify critical constraints faced by sectors with the greatest potential, we have produced a roadmap with key elements of a strategy for Jordan to return to faster, more sustainable and more inclusive growth that is consistent with its emerging comparative advantages.

URLhttps://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/publications/faculty-working-papers/jordan-growth-strategy
来源智库Center for International Development (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/503264
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ricardo Hausmann,Tim O'Brien,Miguel Angel Santos,et al. Jordan: The Elements of a Growth Strategy. 2019.
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