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来源类型 | Fellow & Graduate Student Working Papers |
规范类型 | 工作论文 |
来源ID | CID Research Fellow & Graduate Student Working Paper No. 92 |
The Exposure of U.S. Manufacturing Industries to Exchange Rates | |
Willem Thorbecke | |
发表日期 | 2018-03 |
出版年 | 2018 |
摘要 | Safe asset demand and currency manipulation increase the dollar and the U.S. current account deficit. Deficits in manufacturing trade cause dislocation and generate protectionism. Dynamic OLS results indicate that U.S. export elasticities exceed unity for automobiles, toys, wood, aluminum, iron, steel, and other goods. Elasticities for U.S. imports from China are close to one or higher for footwear, radios, sports equipment, lamps, and watches and exceed 0.5 for iron, steel, aluminum, miscellaneous manufacturing, and metal tools. Elasticities for U.S. imports from other countries are large for electrothermal appliances, radios, furniture, lamps, miscellaneous manufacturing, aluminum, automobiles, plastics, and other categories. For U.S. exports and especially for U.S. imports from China, trade in more sophisticated products are less sensitive to exchange rates. Stock returns on many of the sectors with high export and import elasticities also fall when the dollar appreciates. Several manufacturing industries are thus exposed to a strong dollar. Policymakers could weaken the dollar and deflect protectionist pressure by promoting the euro, the yen, and the renminbi as alternative reserve currencies. |
关键词 | Exchange Rates exports imports |
URL | https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/publications/fellow-graduate-student-working-papers/exposure-us-manufacturing-industries-exchange-rates |
来源智库 | Center for International Development (United States) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/503331 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Willem Thorbecke. The Exposure of U.S. Manufacturing Industries to Exchange Rates. 2018. |
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