G2TT
来源类型Research reports and studies
规范类型报告
Population change in the rural developing world: making the transition
Sharada Keats and Steve Wiggins
发表日期2016
出版年2016
语种英语
概述Across the world, rural areas are going through a demographic transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality.
摘要

Reviewing demographic change in rural areas of the developing world since 1990, this report asks:

  •  What is special about demography in rural areas of the developing world? What are the main changes being seen?
  •  What are the main drivers of rural demography, and how are they evolving?
  •  What, given these drivers, is likely to happen to rural populations in the future? What does this imply for policy?

Across the world, rural areas are going through a demographic transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality, while seeing out-migration to urban areas. In some rural areas, populations are no longer growing, but are declining. Even where the rural population still grows, much of this reflects inertial growth from former high fertility: in most countries the cohort of rural children aged zero to four is shrinking, presaging future population decline.

  • One important change is that demographic change promotes women’s empowerment in rural areas: fewer pregnancies, coupled with more schooling for girls, give women more scope to work, migrate, earn and gain status and autonomy.
  • A second change is that dependency ratios are falling in rural areas, delivering a demographic dividend that can boost growth. Owing to out-migration, however, labour shortages are being reported for agriculture. That may mean more use of machinery; it will certainly mean higher wages. And it should lead to consolidation of operated areas, even if not concentration of farm ownership. 
  • Out-migration from rural areas is likely to persist and intensify in the future.
     
主题maternal health ; agriculture ; gender ; jobs and livelihoods ; migration and refugees ; rural ; Global
URLhttps://www.odi.org/publications/10366-population-change-rural-developing-world-making-transition
来源智库Overseas Development Institute (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/509687
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Sharada Keats and Steve Wiggins. Population change in the rural developing world: making the transition. 2016.
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10588.pdf(354KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
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