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There Is a Reasonable Probability That North Korean Totalitarianism Will End in the Foreseeable Future

• The division of the North into factions would likely precipitate civil war. Such conflict could spread to surrounding countries.
• Weapons of mass destruction could be used and/or sold to third parties.
• Compared to today, an even more serious lack of food, medicine, and other supplies in North Korea would lead to a humanitarian disaster likely worse than the famine of the mid-1990s.
• Large numbers of refugees flowing into China and the Republic of Korea (ROK) would be destabilizing to both countries.
• These possibilities might encourage China to intervene, which could lead to accidental conflicts with intervening ROK and U.S. forces.

The ROK and Its U.S. Ally Will Likely Intervene, with a View to Ultimate Reunification

• The immediate objectives of intervention would be to deliver humanitarian aid, stop conflict, demilitarize the military and security services, secure and eliminate WMD, and liberate political prisons before guards execute the prisoners.
• Alternative employment for those formerly in the military and security services could include public works projects.
• Property rights will need to be addressed.

Such Intervention Requires Planning and Preparation

• Manpower is a potential issue; the size of the ROK military is decreasing and alternatives need to be addressed.
• Large amounts of humanitarian aid will need to be delivered promptly throughout the country. This will require advance stockpiling and organization.
• Coordination with other nations, especially China, will be necessary.

A North Korean government collapse would have serious consequences in North Korea and beyond. At the very least, a collapse would reduce the already scarce food and essential goods available to the population, in part due to hoarding and increasing costs. This could lead to a humanitarian disaster. Factions emerging after a collapse could plunge the country into civil war that spills over into neighboring countries. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) could be used and even proliferated. This report examines ways of controlling and mitigating the consequences, recognizing that the Republic of Korea (ROK) and its U.S. ally will almost certainly need to intervene militarily in the North, likely seeking Korean unification as the ultimate outcome. But such an intervention requires serious preparation. North Koreans must be convinced that they will be treated well and could actually have better lives after unification. The allies need to prepare to deliver humanitarian aid in the North, stop conflict, demilitarize the North Korean military and security services over time, and secure and eventually eliminate North Korean WMD. Potential Chinese intervention must be addressed, ideally leading to cooperation with ROK and U.S. forces. Plans are needed for liberating North Korean political prisons before the guards execute the prisoners. Property rights need to be addressed. The ROK must sustain its military capabilities despite major reductions in force size due to very low birthrates. And ROK reluctance to broadly address North Korean collapse must be overcome so that plans in these areas can move forward.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Possibilities for Collapse

• Chapter Three

  The Potential Consequences of Collapse

• Chapter Four

  Addressing North Korean Thinking About Unification

• Chapter Five

  Challenges of and Responses to Humanitarian Disaster

• Chapter Six

  Challenges of and Responses to Conflict and Military Forces in North Korea

• Chapter Seven

  Challenges of and Responses to Security Services and Human Rights Disasters

• Chapter Eight

  Challenges of and Responses to Ownership Issues

• Chapter Nine

  Challenges of and Responses to Potential Chinese Intervention

• Chapter Ten

  Addressing the Prerequisites of Collapse Preparation