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There Are Four Primary Categories of Predictive Policing Methods; Each Includes Options to Suit the Capabilities and Requirements of Different Police Departments

• Predictive policing methods fall into four general categories: methods for predicting crimes, methods for predicting offenders, methods for predicting perpetrators' identities, and methods for predicting victims of crime.
• Each category includes options for large departments that handle large amounts of complex data and for smaller departments that require only basic tools to manage and visualize small amounts of geospatial data. Available methods range from basic heuristic techniques to sophisticated, cutting-edge mathematical models.

Predictive Policing Methods Are Not Equivalent to a Crystal Ball, but They Can Enhance Proactive Policing and Improve Intervention Strategies

• Predictive policing methods are not a crystal ball: they cannot foretell the future. They can only identify people and locations at increased risk of crime.
• The operational value of predictive policing tools is in their contribution to broader law enforcement strategies that use the tools' risk assessments to inform resource allocation and problem-solving decisions.
• The collection and use of data on individuals has raised a number of concerns about privacy rights and civil liberties. An understanding of the legal precedent, along with regular audits, public outreach strategies, and greater community involvement and buy-in, have helped police departments address these concerns.

Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to identify promising targets for police intervention with the goal of preventing crime, solving past crimes, and identifying potential offenders and victims. These techniques can help departments address crime problems more effectively and efficiently. They are being used by law enforcement agencies across the United States and elsewhere, and these experiences offer valuable lessons for other police departments as they consider the available tools to collect data, develop crime-related forecasts, and take action in their communities. This guide is one in a series of resources sponsored by the National Institute of Justice to help police departments develop strategies to more effectively prevent crime or conduct investigations. It provides assessments of some of the most promising technical tools for making predictions and tactical approaches for acting on them, drawing on prior research, information from vendors and developers, case studies of predictive policing in practice, and lessons from the use of similar techniques in military operations. It also dispels some myths about predictive methods and explores some pitfalls to avoid in using these tools. Predictive policing is a topic of much enthusiasm and much concern, particularly with regard to civil liberties and privacy rights. As this guide shows, these tools are not a substitute for integrated approaches to policing, nor are they a crystal ball; the most effective predictive policing approaches are elements of larger proactive strategies that build strong relationships between police departments and their communities to solve crime problems.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Making Predictions About Potential Crimes

• Chapter Three

  Using Predictions to Support Police Operations

• Chapter Four

  Using Predictions to Support Investigations of Potential Offenders

• Chapter Five

  Findings for Practitioners, Developers, and Policymakers