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Objective Analysis. Effective Solutions.

Defense analysis can do a better job supporting policymakers dealing with multiple objectives and deep uncertainties. This will involve seeing through the fog with simple analysis and undergirding results with depth as necessary. It will emphasize balancing across objectives and hedging against both uncertainty and disagreement among policymakers. Modern methods for doing so are available but they require displacing some familiar processes and demanding more from analysis. Once decisions are made, analysis should help policymakers explain, convince, and shape implementation guidance with sharpened requirements, forcing functions, and metrics for monitoring, feedback, and adaptation.

• Chapter One

  A Setting of Great National Security Challenges

• Chapter Two

  Analysis to Aid Decisionmaking

• Chapter Three

  Concrete Suggestions for Analysis

• Chapter Four

  Creating Capability Models

• Chapter Five

  Finding Suitable Options

• Chapter Six

  Integrating with Portfolio Analysis

• Chapter Seven

  Conclusions

• Appendix A

  Subjective Data on Past Studies

• Appendix B

  Capabilities-Based Planning

• Appendix C

  Other Approaches to Risk Management

• Appendix D

  Illustrative Threat-Based Analysis

• Appendix E

  A Model That Could Have Been "Simple"

• Appendix F

  An Example of Simplified Modeling: The Halt Problem