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Levels of Racial/Ethnic and Gender Diversity Among Air Force Officers

• The representation of minorities and women in Air Force officer ranks has increased significantly over the past two decades but is still below these groups' representation in the general population, at all ranks.
• As rank increases, the proportion of minority and female officers decreases.

Factors That Explain Differences in the Representation of Racial/Ethnic Minorities and Women Among Air Force Officers: Eligibility, Accessions, Retention, and Promotion

• Air Force accessions are less diverse than the general population in terms of race/ethnicity mainly because some minority groups meet Air Force eligibility requirements at lower rates. For example, African Americans and Hispanics are much less likely than whites to have a college degree.
• Women have a higher rate of eligibility than men, in large part because women are more likely to have college degrees. However, their representation is lower than their eligibility rate would suggest. This is likely explained by young men having a generally much higher interest in serving in the armed forces.
• The retention of women is significantly lower than that of men, and this finding is not clearly attributable to women's decisions about having children and other family characteristics, as it is in the civilian workforce.
• There is no evidence to suggest that the Air Force promotion system is unfair, in that there are few large and unexplained racial/ethnic or gender differences in the probability of promotion. However, characteristics associated with certain groups of recruits, such as African Americans' tendency to have lower Air Force Academy order of merit scores, have a negative effect on promotion that builds over time. Minorities and women are more likely than whites and men to be in career fields that have lower promotion rates to senior ranks.

Despite the Air Force's efforts to create a force that mirrors the racial, ethnic, and gender differences of the nation's population, minority groups and women are underrepresented in the active-duty line officer population, especially at senior levels (i.e., colonel and above). This report examines the reasons for this, with the goal of identifying potential policy responses.

The authors analyzed data from multiple sources on Air Force eligibility, youths' intention to serve, accessions, retention, and promotion. A key finding is that African Americans and Hispanics are underrepresented in the Air Force compared with the nation's population mainly because they meet Air Force officer eligibility requirements at lower rates (e.g., they are much less likely than whites to have a college degree). Another reason for lower representation of minorities and women among senior leaders is that, once in the military, women and minorities are less likely to choose career fields that give them the highest potential to become senior leaders. In addition, female officers have lower retention rates than male officers, and the reasons for this are not clear. Finally, the authors comprehensively examined the Air Force promotion system and found no evidence to suggest it treats women and minorities differently than white men with similar records. The authors recommend that the Air Force should seek comparable quality across ethnic/minority groups in the accession processes, since competitiveness even at this stage is a predictor of promotion success. More racial/ethnic minorities and women who are cadets and officers should be in rated career fields, which have the highest promotion rates to the senior ranks.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Constructing Population Benchmarks for Air Force Line Officers

• Chapter Three

  Accessions and Retention

• Chapter Four

  Promotions

• Chapter Five

  Conclusions and Recommendations

• Appendix A

  Doubly Robust Estimation

• Appendix B

  Descriptive Statistics