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There Are Established Control Mechanisms to Prevent the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction

• The eight classes of items in the MTCR's Category I are subject to the tightest export restrictions. The MTCR guidelines state that such exports, if they occur at all, must be "rare" and subject to strong provisions with respect to supplier responsibility.
• Category II items can be used to make Category I items, but they are generally dual-use. (That is, they have other purposes, such as for manned aircraft.) Category II exports are subject to greater flexibility but nevertheless require case-by-case export reviews and specific international procedures.
• The MTCR has well-developed procedures for coordinating export decisions among its members. In addition, the United States has legislation providing sanctions against domestic and foreign entities that contribute to missile proliferation.

Eighteen Classes of Technologies and Equipment Related to Cruise Missile Countermeasures Are Likely Candidates for International Export Control

• In contrast to ballistic missiles, which deliver their payloads at point targets, cruise missiles can dispense a liquid or powder payload while flying in a line perpendicular to the prevailing wind. This means that cruise missiles can be far more efficient at delivering chemical or biological agents.
• Eighteen penaid-related items applicable to cruise missiles are appropriate for inclusion in MTCR Category II, though three types of items — electromagnetic pulse generators, air defense communication jammers, and standoff delivery capabilities — may pose greater challenges.
• If the end use for an item is determined to be the delivery of weapons of mass destruction, the MTCR guidelines automatically upgrade the item to Category I restrictions.
• A Category II case-by-case review will be needed to determine whether complete cruise missile penaid subsystems are to be used on an unmanned aerial vehicle or on a manned aircraft.

The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) becomes a greater threat when accompanied by the proliferation of effective means of delivery. The threat of one means of delivery, cruise missiles, will increase if proliferators can acquire effective countermeasures against missile defenses. Such countermeasures, when incorporated in an attacker's missile, are known as penetration aids or penaids. As proliferator nations acquire ballistic and cruise missiles for this purpose, it will be important to establish effective measures to counter WMD attacks. This research was designed to assist U.S. agencies charged with generating policies to discourage the proliferation of WMD and cruise missile delivery systems, thereby strengthening deterrence. Specifically, it recommends controls on potential exports of penaid-related items according to the structure of the current international policy against missile proliferation, the Missile Technology Control Regime. The recommendations account for 18 classes of such items and are based on structured interviews with government and nongovernment experts, as well as an independent technical assessment to develop a preliminary characterization of the technologies and equipment most critical to the emerging penaid threat. The project also brought together a selected group of experts to participate in a workshop to review the initial characterization of penaid technologies and equipment. An earlier report by the same authors, Penaid Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of Countermeasures Against Ballistic Missiles (RR-378-DTRA), presented a similar approach to controlling the proliferation of ballistic missile penaids.

• Chapter One

  Cruise Missile Penaid Nonproliferation

• Chapter Two

  The Missile Technology Control Regime

• Chapter Three

  Items Proposed for Penaid Export Controls

• Chapter Four

  Implementing Penaid Export Controls

• Chapter Five

  Concluding Observations