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来源类型 | Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
来源ID | RR-644-OSD |
Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization | |
Jonah Blank; Christopher Clary; Brian Nichiporuk | |
发表日期 | 2014-10-30 |
出版年 | 2014 |
语种 | 英语 |
结论 | Increasing Urbanization May Fuel Anti-American Sentiment in the Near Term
Increasing Urbanization May Fuel Radical Transnational Islamist Groups
Increasing Urbanization Is Likely to Change the Dynamic of Counterterrorism
Demography and Urbanization Are Likely to Increase Demand for Political Reform
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摘要 | Already one of the most urbanized nations in South Asia, Pakistan is projected to have a majority of its population living in cities within three decades. This demographic shift will alter Pakistan's politics and threaten its stability, but the political and security implications of Pakistan's urbanization remain underanalyzed. This report examines urbanization as a potential driver of long-term insecurity and instability, with particular attention to the cities of Karachi, Lahore, and Quetta. Drawing on demographic trends, election results, and survey data, the authors conclude that urbanization may fuel anti-American sentiment and help recruitment by transnational Islamist groups (but not necessarily Islamist political parties) in the short term. Urbanization is also likely to increase popular demand for political reform in Pakistan. In the near future, a Pakistani government more directly accountable to its electorate might be less willing to cooperate with the United States in unpopular security policies. In the long run, however, a Pakistani government more responsive to its citizens could be a better security partner for the United States. By spurring Pakistani policymakers to focus on provision of good governance and public services rather than on scapegoating external actors, political reform may eventually help reduce anti-American attitudes. |
目录 |
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主题 | Counterterrorism ; Global Security ; Migration ; Pakistan ; Politics and Government ; Security Cooperation |
URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR644.html |
来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/522599 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jonah Blank,Christopher Clary,Brian Nichiporuk. Drivers of Long-Term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization. 2014. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
RAND_RR644.pdf(617KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
x1495316288193.jpg.p(6KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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