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Continuing Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) Have Higher Average Cost Growth than Those That Are Complete

• Average cost growth in all acquisition metrics except development is substantially higher in continuing Air Force MDAPs than those that are now complete.
• Three continuing space programs with extreme cost growth — Space-Based Infrared System, High Component; Advanced Extremely High Frequency; and Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) — drive the higher cost growth in the group of continuing MDAPs. However, in dollar terms, cost growth in the Air Force portion of the F-35 program (F-35A) is by far the largest of all programs.
• Thus far, there is minimal cost growth in MDAPs begun in the past ten years that have substantial Air Force funding.
• Four MDAPs in aggregate are expected to consume a large fraction of annual Air Force MDAP acquisition funding in the coming 20 years: F-35A, EELV, KC-46A, and the Long-Range Strike Bomber.

During the past four decades, the military services and the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) have managed hundreds of very large weapon system acquisition programs. These programs, designated Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs), account for more than 40 percent of weapon-system acquisition funding appropriated by Congress. RAND maintains an internal database of costs and schedules for these programs, as reported in Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) dating back to the 1960s.

In this report, researchers analyze cost growth in Air Force–managed MDAPs. Differing definitions of cost growth provide differing insights into program outcomes. The analysis focuses on those MDAPs that contain the highest levels of development activity and that, at a minimum, have proceeded through the acquisition process to a point at which a portion of the production units envisioned at the program's Milestone (MS) B were produced and delivered to the warfighter. These MDAPs are broken into two groups: continuing and complete.

Controlling costs in continuing MDAPs is essential to the overall affordability of Air Force modernization plans. A handful of ongoing and recently terminated programs account for substantially higher cost growth in recent Air Force programs compared with complete programs. Cost growth to date in four continuing large-dollar programs must be contained to ensure affordability of the Air Force's long-term investment plans.

• Chapter One

  Selected Acquisition Report Data and Analytics

• Chapter Two

  Analysis of Major Defense Acquisition Programs with Substantial Air Force Funding

• Chapter Three

  Findings for Major Defense Acquisition Programs with Substantial Air Force Funding