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A Whole Candidate Score Is Important, But Not Determinant

• Many applicants who were not offered admission had higher whole candidate scores (WCSs) than applicants who were offered admission. Whether this results from some combination of judgments of the essay component of applications that were not available to us and/or class composition goals is unknown.
• WCSs are composed of several elements that measure such characteristics as aptitude, fitness, ranking in high school, and extracurricular participation.

The WCS Has a Statistically Significant Relationship with Graduation from West Point and Probability of Promotion to O-5

• All but one sub-element of the WCS make significant contributions to the prediction of graduation. School ranking is not predictive of graduation but is significant in prediction of both early O-4 promotion and O-5 promotion. Fitness and athletic scores are statistically significant predictors of graduation, and fitness scores are also significantly associated with higher probability of promotion to O-5.
• This study shows that applicants scoring higher on WCSs have a greater probability of graduation, the first necessary step for entering a career as an Army officer, and of promotion to O-5, traditionally considered the mark of achievement of a successful military career.

This report explores the relationship between the current scoring of data for applicants to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and two subsequent outcomes: probability of graduating and probability of officer promotion. These outcomes are important because when a cadet enters but does not graduate, he or she fills a class seat that could have been filled by someone else who might have graduated, and the cost cannot be recouped. The authors considered candidate scores on several characteristics, including aptitude, athletics, extracurriculars, faculty appraisal, and school ranking. Using a series of logistic regression models and a boosted logistic regression, the results suggest that the current candidate scoring system as the primary basis for admission decisions at West Point is effective.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Applying to West Point

• Chapter Three

  Analysis of Success at West Point

• Chapter Four

  Analysis of Career Success

• Chapter Five

  Conclusions

• Appendix A

  Sample Used in Explaining West Point Success, Early Promotion, and O-5 Promotion

• Appendix B

  Model Comparison for Predicting Promotion to O-5

• Appendix C

  Correlations Among the Analysis Variables

• Appendix D

  Interpreting Coefficients from the Logistic Regression

• Appendix E

  Comparison of the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves