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来源类型 | Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.7249/RR720 |
来源ID | RR-720-EPA |
Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA's National Water Program | |
Jordan R. Fischbach; Robert J. Lempert; Edmundo Molina-Perez; Abdul Ahad Tariq; Melissa L. Finucane; Frauke Hoss | |
发表日期 | 2015-09-09 |
出版年 | 2015 |
语种 | 英语 |
结论 | Climate Change and Other Uncertainties Could Have a Significant Impact on the Success of Water Quality Plans
Rainfall-Runoff Simulation Models Can Provide Useful Information for TMDL Planning Under Deep Uncertainty
Currently Available Simulation Models Are Suitable to Support RDM Analyses, but Much Could Be Done to Improve Their Utility
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摘要 | The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), together with its state and local partners, develops watershed implementation plans designed to meet total maximum daily load (TMDL) water quality standards. Uncertainty regarding the impacts of climate change, future land use, the effectiveness of best management practices, and other drivers may make it difficult for these implementation plans to meet water quality goals. But the methods and processes used to develop implementation plans typically do not address uncertainty in these key drivers of change. In this study, RAND researchers explored how Robust Decision Making (RDM) methods could help USEPA and its partners develop implementation plans that are more robust to such uncertainty. Through two pilot case studies — one on the Patuxent River in Maryland and one on the North Farm Creek tributary of the Illinois River — this study shows how analytic RDM methods can be used to identify future vulnerabilities in TMDL implementation plans and suggest appropriate responses. In both case studies, proposed plans meet their water quality goals under current assumptions, but do not meet water quality goals in many climate and other futures. The study finds that modified plans and adaptive management approaches can often reduce these vulnerabilities. Moving forward, USEPA and its partners can better manage future uncertainty by employing iterative risk management processes and adopting TMDL implementation plans that are robust and flexible. |
目录 |
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主题 | Environmental Pollution ; Global Climate Change ; Illinois ; Maryland ; Robust Decision Making ; Water Resources Management |
URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR720.html |
来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/522838 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jordan R. Fischbach,Robert J. Lempert,Edmundo Molina-Perez,et al. Managing Water Quality in the Face of Uncertainty: A Robust Decision Making Demonstration for EPA's National Water Program. 2015. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
RAND_RR720.pdf(5256KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
1526319953328.jpg(10KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | ![]() 浏览 |
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