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Although China's Capabilities Fall Behind Those of the United States, It Is Now Able to Pose Significant Challenges to U.S. Operations

• China has made tremendous strides in its military capabilities since 1996. It is not close to catching up to the U.S. military in terms of aggregate capabilities, but it does not need to catch up to challenge the United States on its immediate periphery.
• Despite U.S. military improvements, China has made relative gains in most operational areas, in some cases with startling speed. However, trends vary by mission area, and even in the context of difficult scenarios, U.S. forces retain some important advantages.

Distance and Geography Have Major Impacts on Both Sides' Ability to Achieve Their Critical Objectives

• In general, these factors work against the United States and largely counterbalance U.S. military strengths, especially in scenarios around China's immediate periphery.
• China's ability to project power to more distant locations remains weak, and the United States continues to hold more decisive advantage in Asian scenarios at a distance from China's coast.
• However, China's ability to project power is improving, and the relative balance in areas more distant from China is also shifting.

Over the past two decades, China's People's Liberation Army has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. Its technology and operational proficiency still lag behind those of the United States, but it has rapidly narrowed the gap. Moreover, China enjoys the advantage of proximity in most plausible conflict scenarios, and geographical advantage would likely neutralize many U.S. military strengths. A sound understanding of regional military issues — including forces, geography, and the evolving balance of power — will be essential for establishing appropriate U.S. political and military policies in Asia. This RAND study analyzes the development of respective Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in ten categories of military operations across two scenarios, one centered on Taiwan and one on the Spratly Islands. The analysis is presented in ten scorecards that assess military capabilities as they have evolved over four snapshot years: 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2017. The results show that China is not close to catching up to the United States in terms of aggregate capabilities, but also that it does not need to catch up to challenge the United States on its immediate periphery. Furthermore, although China's ability to project power to more distant locations remains limited, its reach is growing, and in the future U.S. military dominance is likely to be challenged at greater distances from China's coast. To maintain robust defense and deterrence capabilities in an era of fiscal constraints, the United States will need to ensure that its own operational concepts, procurement, and diplomacy anticipate future developments in Chinese military capabilities.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Different Paths: Chinese and U.S. Military Development, 1996–2017

• Chapter Three

  Scorecard 1: Chinese Capability to Attack Air Bases

• Chapter Four

  Scorecard 2: Air Campaigns Over Taiwan and the Spratly Islands

• Chapter Five

  Scorecard 3: U.S. Penetration of Chinese Airspace

• Chapter Six

  Scorecard 4: U.S. Capability to Attack Chinese Air Bases

• Chapter Seven

  Scorecard 5: Chinese Anti-Surface Warfare

• Chapter Eight

  Scorecard 6: U.S. Anti-Surface Warfare Capabilities Versus Chinese Naval Ships

• Chapter Nine

  Scorecard 7: U.S. Counterspace Capabilities Versus Chinese Space Systems

• Chapter Ten

  Scorecard 8: Chinese Counterspace Capabilities Versus U.S. Space Systems

• Chapter Eleven

  Scorecard 9: U.S. and Chinese Cyberwarfare Capabilities

• Chapter Twelve

  Scorecard 10: U.S. and Chinese Strategic Nuclear Stability

• Chapter Thirteen

  The Receding Frontier of U.S. Dominance

• Chapter Fourteen

  Implications and Recommendations