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来源类型 | Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
来源ID | RR-974-AF |
Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries: Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management | |
Forrest E. Morgan; David T. Orletsky; Ryan Henry; Roger C. Molander; Ely Ratner; Robert Reardon; Heather Peterson; Harun Dogo; Jessica Hart; Lisa Saum-Manning | |
发表日期 | 2015-10-27 |
出版年 | 2015 |
语种 | 英语 |
结论 | Dilemmas for U.S. Decisionmakers
Can the United States Neutralize a Regional Opponent's Nuclear Capabilities?
Managing Escalation in Conventional Wars with Nuclear-Armed Opponents
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摘要 | Risks are increasing that the United States will find itself in confrontations with nuclear-armed regional adversaries — that is, hostile states with small nuclear arsenals. This research seeks to help the U.S. Air Force understand and prepare for such confrontations. The authors explore circumstances in which the United States might be able to neutralize a regional opponent's nuclear capabilities, and describe how and in what circumstances the United States can manage escalation while defeating nuclear-armed opponents in conventional conflict. ,The analysis finds that there is probably no case in which U.S. forces could neutralize an opponent's nuclear capabilities with a high enough probability of success that U.S. leaders would let them attempt it. However, U.S. forces should be able to manage escalation in some conventional conflicts, as long as the United States does not threaten the survival of the enemy regime or its nuclear deterrent forces. U.S. leaders must deter the adversary from escalating above critical U.S. thresholds and manage U.S. forces to avoid inadvertent and accidental escalation. ,The authors recommend that the Air Force continue research and development on methods and capabilities to find, fix, track, target, and assess enemy nuclear weapons capabilities; continue research and development on ballistic and cruise missile defenses; and conduct research on how to rebalance the force to better enable posturing airpower to conduct conventional strike operations from afar, in order to defeat a nuclear-armed regional adversary's conventional forces while operating from bases beyond the range of its conventional and nuclear strike capabilities. |
目录 |
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主题 | Arms Proliferation and Control ; Nuclear Weapons and Warfare ; United States Air Force |
URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR974.html |
来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/522888 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Forrest E. Morgan,David T. Orletsky,Ryan Henry,et al. Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries: Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management. 2015. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
RAND_RR974.pdf(919KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
1495316328946.jpg(4KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | ![]() 浏览 |
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