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Strategic Trends May Make Limiting Civilian Casualties Increasingly Difficult

• Urban warfare: Anticipated trends in population growth and urbanization mean that the United States is increasingly likely to face urban operational environments. It is difficult to conduct urban warfare while maintaining low levels of collateral damage, although doing so is widely seen as essential for maintaining political support for military operations.
• Hybrid adversaries: The potential for hybrid adversaries to acquire and learn to effectively employ standoff fire capabilities may limit the United States' ability to conduct precision strikes that minimize civilian casualties.

Anticipated Technological Changes May Only Modestly Increase Usable U.S. Capabilities

• Technological advances could give the U.S. military significant new capabilities in the years to come, but the extent to which some of these advances can be used in a manner consistent with the United States' implementation of the LOAC remains in question. This report examines technological trends in autonomous weapon systems, nonlethal weapons, cyber warfare, and space warfare.

Normative Trends May Strengthen Political Pressures to Avoid Collateral Damage

• A number of normative or social trends may influence U.S. LOAC implementation, by affecting domestic public or foreign partner support of or adverse reaction to U.S. military activities. The analysis in this report focused on several trends, including domestic reactions to civilian casualties, the diffusion of recording technology, differing partner attitudes, and the deliberate exploitation of U.S. concern for the LOAC by its adversaries. Overall, these trends are likely to increase political pressures on the United States to minimize civilian casualties.

U.S. policies implementing the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC) have increasingly restricted military activities over the past two decades. Greater concern for civilian casualties in particular has motivated the U.S. military to take increasing precautions in its planning and deterred it from undertaking military actions anticipated to place civilians at risk. Despite the clear impact of such implementations on military operations in recent years, however, relatively little attention has been paid to assessing their potential future direction. This report aims to fill this gap by surveying potential strategic, technological, and normative trends that may affect the future evolution of U.S. LOAC implementation, and assessing the resulting implications for the U.S. military.

The report's assessment of these trends suggests that the U.S. military is likely to find it increasingly difficult to reconcile its operational responsibilities with political pressures to adopt highly restrictive implementations of the LOAC in the years to come, highlighting the need for policy options to mitigate both operational and political risks. The types of adversaries and operational environments that the United States is likely to face will tend to increase the difficulty of distinguishing between combatants and civilians and limiting collateral damage. At the same time, normative trends are likely to further increase the pressure on the United States to adopt restrictive rules of engagement and other implementations of the LOAC that emphasize the importance of avoiding civilian casualties, or place domestic public and foreign partner support for military operations at risk.

• Chapter One

  The Law of Armed Conflict and the Historical Evolution of Its Implementation

• Chapter Two

  Strategic Changes and Law of Armed Conflict Implementation

• Chapter Three

  Technological Changes and Law of Armed Conflict Implementation

• Chapter Four

  Normative Changes and Law of Armed Conflict Implementation

• Chapter Five

  Mitigating Future Risks