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The Army Has Relatively Little Empirical Information About the Personnel Implications of Regionally Aligned Forces (RAF)

• At this point, there has been almost no opportunity to compare different approaches to manning the force in support of RAF and determine that one alternative is superior to others.

Potential Demand for Regional Expertise Appears Likely to Be Moderate

• Demand for regional expertise currently appears to be concentrated at the operational level, at the division echelon and higher, and in theater-level enablers, particularly intelligence, logistics, and signal units.
• The eventual requirement might not exceed 4,300 soldiers.

Acquiring Regional Expertise Need Not Conflict with Traditional Career Development Patterns

• Acquiring appropriate regional expertise need not conflict with normal career progression, at least not substantially.

The Army Will Probably Produce Enough Soldiers with Relevant Expertise to Meet This Modest Demand

• After several years of RAF implementation, the Army will likely accrue sufficient inventories of personnel with the required degree of regional experience. The Army should be able to fill positions with regionally experienced personnel and still retain a modicum of selectivity.

Current Personnel Management Practices and Recordkeeping Systems Do Not Enable the Army to Match Supply with Demand

• A sufficient number of soldiers will probably have the needed expertise, but it is very hard to match the supply with the demand given the level of information currently in Army personnel data.
• For the most part, data about soldiers' regionally relevant experience, education, and training are available neither to assignment personnel nor to units in the field.

Under the Regionally Aligned Forces (RAF) concept, all units not assigned to the global response force are to be assigned, allocated, or otherwise aligned with a geographic combatant command and to adapt their training and other preparations to the particular requirements of the region with which they are aligned. RAND Arroyo Center employed a three-pronged approach to explore how the U.S. Army might need to adapt its personnel management policies and practices to support RAF. First, researchers estimated the potential scope and scale of the requirement for regional expertise. Next, they modeled the Army's ability to produce soldiers with the required expertise under its current assignment policies and practices. Finally, they identified low-cost, low-regret modifications to the goals, objectives, criteria, and methods of the personnel management system that would help to match soldiers with the desired level of expertise with the positions requiring it and develop soldiers with such expertise to provide a continuing source of able occupants for these positions.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  The Current State of Regionally Aligned Forces Implementation

• Chapter Three

  Assessing Potential Requirements for Regional Expertise

• Chapter Four

  Assessing the Army's Ability to Develop Regional Expertise

• Chapter Five

  Tracking and Measuring Regionally Aligned Forces–Relevant Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities

• Chapter Six

  Findings and Recommendations

• Appendix

  Methods, Analysis, and Results of the Expert Panel