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People's Liberation Army (PLA) Capabilities Force Taiwan to Substantially Rethink and Restructure Its Air Defense Because Taiwan's Fighter Force Faces a Trio of Problems

• Taiwan's fighter force is vulnerable to missile attack while on the ground.
• It is outnumbered in the air.
• It is less capable in the air than the latest PLA aircraft.

Surface-to-Air Missiles' Survivability Makes Them a Preferred Option

• Multilayered surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) can become an important contributor to Taiwan's defense as enablers of other defensive operations but not to defend fixed targets.
• They are a difficult capability for China to counter easily.

Taiwan Needs More-Mobile and Shorter-Range Air Defense Systems

• Taiwan's existing Patriot and TK forces provide relatively long-range capabilities that need to be complemented with a shorter-range, more-survivable system.

Taiwan Can Afford New SAM Investments If It Divests Some of Its Existing Fighter Aircraft Fleet

• SAMs are affordable within current budget levels if Taiwan divests some of its existing fighter force.

Taiwan faces one of the most difficult air defense problems in the world. Because of that, it cannot easily look to how other nations have invested in air defenses to guide its force structure decisions. What makes Taiwan's air defense problem so difficult is the combination of its proximity to China and the massive investments that the People's Republic of China has made in a range of systems that threaten Taiwan's aircraft. China's fighter aircraft capabilities have surpassed those of Taiwan in the air. Furthermore, China now has the capability to destroy all of Taiwan's aircraft at their bases. Thus, Taiwan needs to rethink how it can accomplish its air defense goals. Fighter aircraft are not the only element of Taiwan's air defense; surface-to-air missiles are the other major element. This report analyzes how Taiwan might approach air defense, by downsizing and shifting its fighter aircraft force to focus on coercive scenarios, increasing its investment in surface-to-air missiles, and dedicating its surface-based air defense to becoming an enduring warfighting capability able to contribute throughout the duration of a sustained and effective defense of Taiwan. It describes the essential air defense problem posed by the People's Liberation Army, characterizes the current capabilities and level of funding that Taiwan invests in air defense, and then develops several alternative investment strategies. The authors then test those investment strategies in three vignettes that span the range of conflict, from quite limited coercive uses of force to a full invasion.

• Chapter One

  Introduction and the Threat Environment

• Chapter Two

  Force Structure

• Chapter Three

  Vignettes and Analytic Results

• Chapter Four

  Implications

• Appendix A

  Cost Estimation Methods

• Appendix B

  Approaches to Vignette Analysis

• Appendix C

  Other Air Defense Systems Considered

• Appendix D

  Results of Other Forces Examined in the Air Sovereignty Vignette