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Resilience as a Priority

• Changing the prevalent mindset/culture that "space is a sanctuary" within the rank and file of the space operator community will require space leadership to define priorities and provide resources for non-materiel space resilience activities.

Space Protection Concept of Operations

• The authors developed implementation options to improve resilience based on a notional space protection operational concept: enhancing the capability of space operators to respond, in a timely and effective manner, to adversary counterspace actions. Operators need actionable information, appropriate organization and tactics, and dynamic command and control, supported by appropriate tools and decision aids, relevant training and exercises, and qualified personnel brought into the career field.
• The authors also recommend that Air Force Space Command develop a formal, end-to-end, space protection concept of operations (CONOPS) that captures all elements needed to improve resilience.
• In addition, when developing the CONOPS, it may be time for the space community to relax its centralized control and centralized execution in certain situations, such as responding to adversary counterspace actions, and follow the tenet of centralized control and decentralized execution.

Rough Order of Magnitude Costs

• For the near-term options, the rough order of magnitude (ROM) nonrecurring engineering (NRE) cost of implementation is estimated to be between $2.5 million and $3.6 million.
• For the far-term options, the ROM NRE cost is estimated to be between $109 million and $166 million, with the ROM recurring cost between $4 million and $5.4 million per year.

Space is now a congested, contested, and competitive environment. Space systems must become more resilient to potential adversary actions and system failures, but changes to space systems are costly. To provide a complete look at resilience and possibly realize some benefit at lower cost, the Air Force asked RAND to identify non-materiel means — doctrine, organization, training, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy — to enhance space resilience over the near and far terms.The authors developed implementation options to improve resilience based on a notional space protection operational concept: enhancing the capability of space operators to respond, in a timely and effective manner, to adversary counterspace actions. Operators need actionable information, appropriate organization and tactics, and dynamic command and control, supported by appropriate tools and decision aids, relevant training and exercises, and qualified personnel brought into the career field.

The authors also recommend that Air Force Space Command develop a formal, end-to-end, space protection concept of operations (CONOPS) that captures all elements needed to improve resilience. In addition, the CONOPS could potentially follow the tenet of centralized control and decentralized execution in certain situations, such as when responding to adversary counterspace actions. For the near-term options, the rough order of magnitude (ROM) nonrecurring engineering (NRE) cost of implementation is estimated to be between $2.5 million and $3.6 million. For the far-term options, the ROM NRE cost is estimated to be between $109 million and $166 million, with the ROM recurring cost between $4 million and $5.4 million per year.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Resilience and Civil Institutions

• Chapter Three

  Resilience and U.S. Government Civil Space Agencies

• Chapter Four

  Resilience and Air Force Space Operations

• Chapter Five

  Resilience and a World with International and Commercial Partners

• Chapter Six

  Recommendations

• Appendix A

  Space Resilience Cost Analysis