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Most of the Admissions Formula Elements Are Useful in Predicting Outcomes at the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA); Selection Panel Score Is the One Exception

• SAT, academic composite, leadership composite, and selection composite are significant predictors of failure to graduate for academic reasons, graduation versus choosing a career change, grade point average (GPA), military performance average (MPA), and overall performance average (OPA).
• In the overwhelming majority of the analyses, selection panel score was significant, but in the wrong direction: Higher scores were associated with a lower likelihood of success in many of the outcomes.

The Analyses Showed Interesting Differences Depending on Which Outcome Was Predicted

• The admissions factors do a much better job of predicting GPA and OPA than they do of predicting MPA. They also do a better job of predicting graduation versus failure for academic reasons than they do of predicting graduation versus choosing a career change.
• For predicting failure for academic reasons, the academic composite should be weighted more heavily than leadership composite, and the selection panel score should be excluded. For predicting graduating versus choosing a career change, the results suggest weighting leadership composite slightly less than the academic composite.
• Academic composite should be weighted twice that of leadership composite for predicting MPA and nine times that of the leadership composite for predicting OPA and GPA.
• For predicting promotions to O-4, O-5, and O-6, USAFA outcomes (GPA, MPA, and OPA) were much better predictors than the admissions factors, and MPA was a slightly better predictor than USAFA GPA.

This report examines admission standards at the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) and officer outcomes to evaluate whether the USAFA admissions formula should be adjusted. USAFA admissions are partly determined based on scores calculated as a weighted combination of three elements: academic composite, leadership composite, and selection panel score. The authors explored relationships between various admissions factors (SAT/ACT composite scores, high school rank divided by class size, selection composite score, leadership composite score, academic composite score, and selection panel score) and USAFA and officer outcomes (grade point average; failure to graduate for academic reasons; failure to graduate because of a desire for a career change; military performance average; overall performance average; and promotion to O-4, O-5, and O-6). The data included records on the nearly 35,000 cadets who attended USAFA from 1980 to 2011 from three Air Force data sources: USAFA registrar admissions records, USAFA cadet records, and Air Force personnel records. Recommendations include removing the selection panel score from the selection composite formula, collecting additional information on applicants, and improving data retention and maintenance.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Overview of USAFA's Admissions Process and Available Data

• Chapter Three

  Components of the Admissions Process

• Chapter Four

  Statistical Approach and Data Sources

• Chapter Five

  Regression Analysis Results

• Chapter Six

  Recommendations

• Appendix A

  Average Marginal Effects, Unstandardized Beta Coefficients, and Fit Indexes

• Appendix B

  Means and Standard Deviations for Each Analysis Population

• Appendix C

  Estimating New Recommended Formula Weights