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• The GCC has always had high and low periods of cooperation and friction. Current and future trends are not likely to differ significantly from this historical pattern, but the consequences of intra-GCC dynamics are greater now with the growing activism of some member states.
• Fissures within the GCC reached a peak during the 2012–2014 period, largely over the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in regional politics. But the GCC was never in danger of dissolution due to overriding political and economic incentives binding the grouping together, particularly a common desire to preserve monarchical rule.
• While the conflict in Yemen has largely unified GCC states in the security realm, post-conflict transitions tend to exacerbate intra-GCC divisions, as was the case in Libya. Consequently, endgames in Yemen and Syria could engender tension among GCC states over what constitutes an acceptable outcome.
• An increase in the ISIL threat could increase intra-GCC cooperation, particularly in the areas of intelligence sharing and coordination between internal security forces.
• While GCC states are diversifying security relationships, such diversification is designed to increase the GCC states' leverage vis-à-vis the United States as its traditional security guarantor, rather than presaging a fundamental shift in the nature of the regional security order built on security relationships with the United States.
• Increased intraregional trade and growing infrastructure development are likely to drive enhanced GCC economic integration over the next decade, but monetary unification is unlikely.

The cohesion of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — defined here as the ability of the six GCC member states to act together or in parallel — has significant consequences for regional stability and U.S. interests. This report examines factors that bind and divide the six GCC states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — and presents the outlook for the GCC's evolution over the next ten years. Addressing the political, economic, and security dimensions of GCC relationships, the study provides a framework for understanding intra-GCC dynamics, an expectation of future developments, and policy recommendations for enhancing stability and U.S. regional interests.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  GCC Cohesion in Historical Perspective

• Chapter Three

  Prospects for GCC Cohesion to 2025

• Chapter Four

  Policy Implications