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• Conflict trends are a limited guide for long-term posture planning.
• Unforeseen crises or conflicts have been the primary agent of change in global posture.
• Posture is characterized by long periods of stability, punctuated by rapid change.
• Path aversion can constrain posture but effects tend to be fleeting.
• Geography remains relevant to long-term posture planning.

Good posture planning must distinguish powerful long-term trends from headline-grabbing events, have sufficient breadth to capture a wide range of possible posture demands, and be robust in the face of the inevitable uncertainties about where, when, and how U.S. interests will be challenged. U.S. Air Force (USAF) planners must design a posture that can evolve to meet changing global demands over a multidecade period, while making immediate adaptations to meet the demands of today's crises and contingencies. Planning processes typically are based on assumptions, making judgments about the relative probability and importance of demands and other factors, but at least some of these assumptions are bound to be wrong. The planning process should seek to reduce the importance of assumptions by designing a posture that is robust across many alternative futures, including diverse assumptions and a wide range of demands. Massive scenario generation and contingent event analysis can test future posture options across a wide range of demands. Planners should also combine sufficient posture "stickiness" to maintain enduring access in key locations and sufficient agility to surge from these locations to meet out-of-area demands and shrink back as operational demands end.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Long-Term Conflict Trends

• Chapter Three

  Strategy Choices and Posture Implications

• Chapter Four

  Contingent Event Analysis

• Chapter Five

  Path Dependence in USAF Posture

• Chapter Six

  Path Aversion As a Constraint on Posture

• Chapter Seven

  Conclusions

• Appendix

  Polya Models and Simulations