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Americans Ambivalent and Divided

• For more than seven decades, the United States and its friends and allies built a liberal international order that ushered in an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity. Today, after 15 years of inconclusive wars, widespread disenchantment with the country's economic performance, and a polarizing presidential election, Americans are mistrustful of their government and divided over their country's role.

Major Global Realignments Will Require U.S. Attention

• Major-power shifts and realignments have occurred around the world. The next administration will need to deal with Russian and Chinese military modernization and aggressive postures, yet seek their cooperation on global security and economic issues. This will require deft "Rubik's Cube" diplomacy: multi-dimensional thinking and the ability to manage ambiguous relationships with governments that have both shared and conflicting interests.

Slow Growth, Trouble in the Labor Market, and Federal Debt Will Be Challenging

• U.S. growth prospects are better than those of any other major developed country, and the country is better positioned than any of its rivals to address problems, including debt, jobs, dislocation and demographics. Slow global growth, domestic labor market weakness, and record debt-to-GDP ratio will be challenges.

Nuclear Weapons, Biological Threats, and Climate Change Are Potentially Existential Threats

• The United States faces no certain existential threat. But U.S. leadership will be required to address potentially existential threats from Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons, emerging biological threats, and rapid climate change. Reducing these supranational threats is a core U.S. interest that must remain a constant focus.

This report is the last in the six-volume Strategic Rethink series, in which RAND explores the elements of a national strategy for the conduct of U.S. foreign policy in a turbulent world. This final overview report analyzes how the United States moved from the triumph at the end of the Cold War to the stalemate of today, and the major-power shifts and realignments that have occurred around the world.

The report reviews the country's strengths and weaknesses, and suggests strategies for adapting to this new era of turbulence and uncertainty. It analyzes how to improve the U.S. government's capacity for anticipation, deterrence, and resilience, three areas for policy attention that will become increasingly important in a period of rapid change. It presents three plausible U.S. strategic concepts and evaluates their underlying assumptions, costs, risks, and constraints. It also offers thoughts on how to choose among alternatives. It concludes that the United States is in many ways in an enviable position compared with its rivals, and continues to benefit from the liberal international order that it built over seven decades. However, a coherent international strategy will be difficult to pursue without a greater degree of domestic political consensus. Domestic political dysfunction is the greatest obstacle to effective U.S. global leadership.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Part One

  Current Challenges

  • Chapter Two

    From Triumph to Stalemate: The Loss of American Consensus

  • Chapter Three

    Is the World Falling Apart (And How Would We Know)?

  • Chapter Four

    Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing with Vulnerabilities

  • Chapter Five

    Anticipation, Deterrence, and Resilience

• Part Two

  Strategic Choices

  • Chapter Six

    About Strategy — Grand and Otherwise

  • Chapter Seven

    Option I: "Come Home America": Domestic Renewal, International Restraint

  • Chapter Eight

    Option II: "The Indispensable Nation": America as Promoter of World Order

  • Chapter Nine

    Option III: "Agile America": Adapt and Compete in a Changing World

  • Chapter Ten

    How to Choose

• Coda

  The Challenge of Leadership: Aligning Vision, Values, Interests, and Resources

• Appendix

  Excerpts from the Conversation on Grand Strategy