全球智库信息集成服务系统

Projected Demand, River Allocations, and Changes in Climate Affect Residential, Industrial, and Agricultural Sectors

• Because of data limitations, particularly pertaining to surface and groundwater interactions, model results should be taken as instructive and not definitive.
• All of the downscaled climate projections show warming. However, there is scientific disagreement about whether conditions will be getting wetter or drier. One of the benefits of this analysis is that it helps Jinan officials understand how important this uncertainty is by looking at results across a wide range of wetter and drier conditions. Our study shows that it is not an important factor in most cases.
• Unmet demand in the residential sector is driven more by levels of projected demand and allocation of Yellow River resources than by changes in future climate.
• Under a medium demand projection and full Yellow River allocation, the industrial sector is vulnerable only under an assumption of low initial groundwater storage. Under a 50-percent Yellow River allocation, the industrial sector is vulnerable under all demand projections, regardless of initial groundwater assumptions.
• The vulnerability of the agricultural sector depends on future climate more than the residential and industrial sectors. We see no shortages in the wettest climates but very significant shortages in drier climates.
• Jinan's springs are vulnerable across all futures. Even in wet climates, low spring flows each year occur around three months on average; in dry climates, low flows appear on average about eight months each year.

The Jinan Municipal Water Resources Bureau, with support from the Shandong Provincial Department of Water Resources, asked RAND to evaluate potential effects of demand and climate uncertainties on investments recently undertaken according to the Jinan City Water Ecological Development Implementation Plan. RAND was also asked to assess the potential of new investments and management strategies to help Jinan meet its long-term water resources goals. RAND's approach uses well-tested methods of decision support, starting with building a shared understanding of the nature of the decision, metrics to evaluate progress toward goals, key uncertainties that drive outcomes, and relevant physical and other relationships within Jinan's complex water system. The approach also uses visualizations to help policymakers understand the implications of the results, build consensus, and facilitate decision making. This document describes RAND's approach and results, including the development of a mathematical simulation model of the Jinan water system, using the Water Evaluation and Planning software developed by the Stockholm Environmental Institute, and analysis of the system's performance under a range of uncertainties about future climate and demand across sectors.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Approach to Analysis and Visualization of Long-Term Performance

• Chapter Three

  Development and Calibration of the Jinan WEAP Model

• Chapter Four

  Scenario Development

• Chapter Five

  Baseline Evaluation of Vulnerability to Unmet Demand Assuming Historical Climate Conditions

• Chapter Six

  Evaluation of Vulnerabilities Across Future Climate Projections

• Chapter Seven

  Reducing Vulnerability to Unmet Demand Through the Implementation Plan and Additional Management Strategies

• Chapter Eight

  Challenges of Flood Frequency Analysis Under a Changing Climate

• Chapter Nine

  Observations and Recommendations

• Appendix A

  Data Collection

• Appendix B

  Status of Implementation Plan

• Appendix C

  Adjustment of Demand Projections

• Appendix D

  Regression Models Used in Climate Projections

• Appendix E

  Decision Rule for Springs Adaptive Groundwater Management

• Appendix F

  Experimental Design

• Appendix G

  Water Balance Tables