G2TT
来源类型Report
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR1912
来源IDRR-1912
Rolling Back the Islamic State
Seth G. Jones; James Dobbins; Daniel Byman; Christopher S. Chivvis; Ben Connable; Jeffrey Martini; Eric Robinson; Nathan Chandler
发表日期2017-04-20
出版年2017
语种英语
结论

The Ultimate Goal of the Islamic State's Strategy Is to Establish a Pan-Islamic Caliphate

  • The Islamic State has no intention of containing itself within certain countries or regions but seeks to expand its power and influence.
  • Numerous Salafi-jihadist groups across the world have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.

While the Islamic State Has Lost Territory and Support, It Continues to Pose a Terrorist Threat to the United States and Its Allies

  • The Islamic State has lost considerable territory since 2014 in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, and Nigeria.
  • Polling data indicate declining support across the Muslim world for the Islamic State and its ideology.
  • The Islamic State continues to conduct and inspire attacks around the globe.
  • The group's global footprint includes eight formal provinces outside Iraq and Syria; over a dozen informal provinces; and tens of thousands of inspired individuals across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and North America.

The United States Should Pursue a Light Rollback Strategy Against the Islamic State

  • The advocates of disengagement and containment argue that the Islamic State will eventually burn itself out. But the defeat of the Islamic State would be at best distant, and the group could still plot or inspire attacks.
  • The employment of large numbers of American troops in ground combat would likely give rise to local resistance.
  • Key components of a light rollback strategy include the use of American airpower, special operations forces, and intelligence units to enable local partners to liberate territory held by the Islamic State.
摘要

The Islamic State is a byproduct of the 2003 American intervention in Iraq and the subsequent American departure in 2011. At its peak in late 2014, the group held more than 100,000 square kilometers of territory with a population of nearly 12 million, mostly in Iraq and Syria. Beginning in 2015, the Islamic State began to lose territory as it faced increasingly effective resistance. Still, the Islamic State continues to conduct and inspire attacks around the world. This report assesses the threat the Islamic State poses to the United States and examines four possible strategies to counter the group: disengagement, containment, rollback "light" (with a reliance on local forces backed by U.S. special operations forces, Central Intelligence Agency and other intelligence assets, and airpower), and rollback "heavy" (adding the employment of American conventional forces in ground combat). The authors conclude that the United States should pursue a light rollback strategy. They also recommend additional steps, such as rebalancing counterterrorism efforts to address grievances, loosening restrictions on U.S. military operations, increasing U.S. military posture in Africa, and tightening restrictions in the Islamic State's internet access.

目录
  • Part I

    The Challenge and Approach

    • Chapter One

      Introduction

    • Chapter Two

      The Rise and Decline of the Islamic State

    • Chapter Three

      U.S. Strategy

  • Part II

    Country Campaigns

    • Chapter Four

      Iraq

    • Chapter Five

      Syria

    • Chapter Six

      Libya

    • Chapter Seven

      Nigeria

    • Chapter Eight

      Egypt

    • Chapter Nine

      Afghanistan

  • Part III

    The Global Campaign

    • Chapter Ten

      The Ideological and Information Campaign

    • Chapter Eleven

      Recommendations

  • Appendix A

    Per-Troop Rollback Cost Methodology

  • Appendix B

    Security, Economic, and Humanitarian Assistance Cost Methodology

主题Afghanistan ; Counterterrorism ; Egypt ; The Internet ; Iraq ; The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization) ; Libya ; Nigeria ; Peacekeeping and Stability Operations ; Syria
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1912.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/523284
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Seth G. Jones,James Dobbins,Daniel Byman,et al. Rolling Back the Islamic State. 2017.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
RAND_RR1912.pdf(5665KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
x1570472066843.jpg.p(3KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Seth G. Jones]的文章
[James Dobbins]的文章
[Daniel Byman]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Seth G. Jones]的文章
[James Dobbins]的文章
[Daniel Byman]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Seth G. Jones]的文章
[James Dobbins]的文章
[Daniel Byman]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: RAND_RR1912.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
文件名: x1570472066843.jpg.pagespeed.ic.6dzfMT2YMe.jpg
格式: JPEG

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。