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来源类型 | Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.7249/RR1498 |
来源ID | RR-1498-A |
Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine | |
Michael Kofman; Katya Migacheva; Brian Nichiporuk; Andrew Radin; Olesya Tkacheva; Jenny Oberholtzer | |
发表日期 | 2017-05-09 |
出版年 | 2017 |
语种 | 英语 |
结论 | Russia's Operation to Annex Crimea Represented Decisive and Competent Use of Military Force in Pursuit of Political Ends
Russia's Operations in Crimea Benefited from a Series of Highly Favorable Circumstances That Makes It Difficult to Replicate
Russian Leaders Are Likely to Consider Eastern Ukraine to Be a Strategic Success but an Unsuccessful Operation
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摘要 | This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia's approach, draws inferences from Moscow's intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere. ,These two distinct campaigns overlap somewhat but offer different lessons for participants and observers. The report finds that Russia's operation to annex Crimea represented a decisive and competent use of military force in pursuit of political ends. Russia's operations in Crimea benefited from highly favorable circumstances — political, historical, geographical, and military — that limit their generalizability. Analysis of the operation underscores that there are many remaining unknowns about Russia's military capabilities, especially in the aftermath of its military reforms and modernization program. The report also finds that the campaign in Eastern Ukraine was an ineffectually implemented — and perhaps ill-conceived — effort to achieve political fragmentation of Ukraine via federalization and retain Russian influence. Russia achieved its primary objectives but at a much higher cost than desired and through a fitful cycle of adaptation. ,This study thus questions the desirability for Moscow to replicate a course of events similar to the campaign in Eastern Ukraine. Conversely, the operation to annex Crimea was a highly successful employment of select elements within Russia's armed forces, making it an attractive use of military power, but the structural and operation factors contributing to its success raise doubts whether it can be repeated elsewhere. |
目录 |
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主题 | Information Operations ; Low-Intensity Conflict ; North Atlantic Treaty Organization ; Politics and Government ; Russia ; Ukraine |
URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1498.html |
来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/523301 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael Kofman,Katya Migacheva,Brian Nichiporuk,et al. Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. 2017. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
RAND_RR1498.pdf(2842KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
x1643814341566.jpg.p(2KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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