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Cyber Attribution Efforts Lack Uniformity and Credibility

• Analysis of recent cases indicates that the practice of attribution has been diffuse and discordant, with no standard methodology used in the investigations to assess evidence, nor a universal confidence metric for reaching a finding.
• In several cases, investigations were performed but no formal attribution finding was made public by the investigative entity or victim. Further, public statements of attribution have been met with suspicion, confusion, and a request for greater transparency about the investigation and the evidential basis.

Challenges in Cyber Attribution

• The first challenge concerns the difficulty of reaching a cyber attribution finding. Technical, political, and all-source indicators are all tools used in determining attribution, and usually are used in some combination.
• A second cyber attribution challenge concerns the issue of persuasively communicating a finding to an intended audience. Credibility hinges on several factors: strong evidence, demonstration of the requisite knowledge and skills for reaching a correct conclusion, a track record of accuracy and precision, a reputation for objective and unbiased analysis, and a transparent methodology that includes an independent review process.
• Effective cyber attribution investigations will reflect these considerations and achieve credibility in the eyes of the of the target audience.

The public attribution of a malicious cyber incident consists of identifying the responsible party behind the activity. A cyber attribution finding is a necessary prerequisite for holding actors accountable for malicious activity. Recently, several cyber incidents with geopolitical implications and the attribution findings associated with those incidents have received high-profile press coverage. Many segments of the general public disputed and questioned the credibility of the declared attributions. This report reviews the state of cyber attribution and examines alternative options for producing standardized and transparent attribution that may overcome concerns about credibility. In particular, this exploratory work considers the value of an independent, global organization whose mission consists of investigating and publicly attributing major cyber attacks.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  A Review of Notable Cyber Attacks

• Chapter Three

  Cyber Attribution in Practice

• Chapter Four

  Toward a Global Consortium for Cyber Attribution

• Chapter Five

  The Core Features of a Cyber Attribution Organization

• Chapter Six

  Conclusion