全球智库信息集成服务系统

New Requirements Are Emerging for Defense Engagement in Europe

• U.S. defense priorities in the region are shifting; as a result, so will the focus of U.S. partnerships.
• RAND research indicates that, among potential problem areas, the Baltic States are particularly exposed to conventional and unconventional threats from Russia.

Strategic Trends in NATO's Northeastern Flank Vary Among Countries

• Poland is significantly willing and able to contribute resources to regional defense.
• Sweden and Finland, while not NATO members, are increasingly debating membership in light of recent events and already have close partnership arrangements with good interoperability and considerable economic resources.
• The small Baltic States are concerned by and vulnerable to Russian aggression but have limited resources to contribute to their defense. Determining the nature of optimal engagement strategies will be challenging.
• The Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary are conflicted by varying degrees of pro-Russian sentiment. They also lack capabilities. Their contributions to NATO efforts to deter Russia are thus apt to be more limited.

This report examines the impact of renewed tension between NATO and Russia on a group of key allies and partners in central and northeastern Europe. It identifies how changes in the interests, security strategies, and defense capabilities of these countries may affect U.S. defense partnering in the region, with a specific focus on opportunities and implications for the U.S. Air Force. While both politics and resources will constrain partnership opportunities and the ability of these countries to contribute to U.S. regional defense objectives, opportunities for strengthening partnerships do exist in multiple areas.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Part I

  The Visegrad Four

  • Chapter Two

    Czech Republic: In Havel's Shadow

  • Chapter Three

    Hungary: Balancing East and West

  • Chapter Four

    Poland: A Growing Regional Role

  • Chapter Five

    Slovakia: Moving West While Hedging East

• Part II

  The Baltic States

  • Chapter Six

    Estonia: Committed Partner with Limited Capabilities

  • Chapter Seven

    Latvia: Acute Vulnerability and Limited Capacity

  • Chapter Eight

    Lithuania: Closing the Gap Between Rhetoric and Capabilities

• Part III

  The Nordic Partners

  • Chapter Nine

    Finland: Moving From Self-Reliance to Solidarity

  • Chapter Ten

    Sweden: Ever Closer to NATO

  • Chapter Eleven

    Conclusions

• Online Appendix

  Country Engagement Priorities