全球智库信息集成服务系统

The Degree of Unexplained Variation Allows for Only a Range of Cost and Schedule Growth Prediction

• It is not possible to accurately estimate an MDAP's level of future cost growth or schedule slip, because there is simply too much unexplained variation in program cost and schedule outcomes.
• This approach can provide decisionmakers with useful information, however, on the range of uncertainty in MDAP outcomes that they can expect.
• Findings from this methodology can help inform acquisition policy and direct senior leadership attention to those programs that pose the greatest risk of poor outcomes.

To help the Air Force better anticipate cost and schedule challenges and manage programs throughout their life cycles, this study developed a methodology that can be used to evaluate the likelihood of cost growth and schedule slip for major defense acquisition projects (MDAPs) based on program characteristics observable at milestone (MS) B. RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) has developed and maintains a comprehensive database of program cost and schedule information obtained by analyzing and summarizing the contents of Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) from the inception of each program through the latest out-of-cycle and annual SARs submitted as part of each year's President's Budget. From this database, the authors calculate cost and schedule factors that serve as the outcome metrics for assessing MDAP performance from MS B to the final or FY14 President's Budget SAR. PAF's ongoing SAR analyses have led to the creation of models that can be used to assess at program inception the risk of future cost growth and schedule slip. This document describes the technical approach and findings of this work. It should be of interest to analysts concerned with MDAP cost and schedule growth issues.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Program Outcomes and Characteristics Considered in This Analysis

• Chapter Three

  Relating Cost and Schedule Growth to Program Characteristics

• Chapter Four

  Estimates of Cost and Schedule Risk for MDAPs in the Air Force's Current Portfolio

• Chapter Five

  Concluding Remarks

• Appendix A

  Plots of RDT&E Spending Versus Cost and Schedule Growth

• Appendix B

  Alternative Regression Specifications

• Appendix C

  Predictions of APUC, Development Cost, and Schedule Growth Confidence Intervals for Continuing and New Programs