G2TT
来源类型Report
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR1063
来源IDRR-1063-A
Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections
Thomas S. Szayna; Angela O'Mahony; Jennifer Kavanagh; Stephen Watts; Bryan Frederick; Tova C. Norlen; Phoenix Voorhies
发表日期2017-09-12
出版年2017
语种英语
结论

Trends in Conflict

  • Overall levels of conflict have been declining in the past two decades.
  • Interstate violence has decreased the most, both in the incidence and intensity of armed conflict.
  • Intrastate conflict and low-intensity violence have declined more slowly, but have decreased in incidence and intensity.

Key Factors in Change in Conflict Patterns

  • Capacity of state institutions
  • Degree of ethnic and sectarian polarization
  • Prevalence of consolidated democracies
  • Rate of economic growth
  • Extent of economic interdependence
  • Capabilities of international organizations
  • Degree of U.S. preeminence
  • Strength of international norms
  • Diffusion of lethal technology
  • Extent of resource stress because of population pressures

Future Projections of Conflict

  • Both the interstate and intrastate baseline future conflict projections depict a continued decline through 2040.
  • The three factors that most strongly increased interstate conflict expectations were declining U.S. preeminence, declining capabilities of international organizations, and declining prevalence of consolidated democracies.
  • The two factors that most strongly increased intrastate conflict expectations were declining capacity of state institutions and declining rates of economic growth.
摘要

Armed conflict has declined in both frequency and intensity since the end of the Cold War. The trends are especially clear for interstate conflict, but they also hold true for intrastate conflict. Taking into account historical trends and projections of key conflict drivers, the interstate and intrastate baseline future conflict projections in this report depict a continued decline through 2040, with interstate conflict down to extremely low levels and a much lower incidence of intrastate conflict. Some divergence from these projections is likely. The three factors that most strongly increased interstate conflict expectations were declining U.S. preeminence, declining capabilities of international organizations, and declining prevalence of consolidated democracies. The incidence of intrastate conflict is expected to increase if the capacity of state institutions or the rate of economic growth declines. Although the authors' projections indicate that interstate conflict may be rare in the future, the United States must retain a ready and credible land power deterrent to ensure such a future. Such a deterrent might not be used frequently, but its very existence delays the rise of a challenger and has a dampening effect on the incidence of conflict. The authors' projections also indicate that intrastate conflict (including proxy wars) will continue to be the main form of conflict incidence and, given the U.S. position in the international state system, Army forces are likely to become engaged in such conflicts. The trends toward a decrease in conflict incidence do not necessarily mean fewer U.S. interventions.

目录
  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Overview of Conflict Trends

  • Chapter Three

    Operationalizing and Projecting Key Factors That Will Influence the Future Incidence of Conflict

  • Chapter Four

    Establishing the "No Surprises" Future

  • Chapter Five

    Alternative Futures

  • Chapter Six

    Final Observations

  • Appendix A

    Trends in Conflict, 1946–2015: A Review of Conflict Types and Data Sets

  • Appendix B

    Alternative Futures Tool

  • Appendix C

    Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict

主题Democracy ; Global Security ; Military Force Planning ; Military Logistics ; Threat Assessment
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1063.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/523380
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Thomas S. Szayna,Angela O'Mahony,Jennifer Kavanagh,et al. Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections. 2017.
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