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来源类型 | Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.7249/RR1177 |
来源ID | RR-1177-A |
A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning | |
Stephen Watts; Bryan Frederick; Jennifer Kavanagh; Angela O'Mahony; Thomas S. Szayna; Matthew Lane; Alexander Stephenson; Colin P. Clarke | |
发表日期 | 2017-09-12 |
出版年 | 2017 |
语种 | 英语 |
结论 | Armed Conflict Has Declined
The Trend of Declining Conflict Is Likely to Continue
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摘要 | Has the relative peace of the immediate post-Cold War era been replaced by a world of escalating conflict and threats to U.S. security? What is the security threat environment likely to look like in the long-term future? ,To answer these questions, this report analyzes trends in violent conflict and discusses their broad implications for long-term defense planning. It presents statistical models that estimate the incidence of violent conflict — both within and between countries — and that project conflict trends over the next 25 years under different scenarios. The analysis concludes that violent conflict is likely to return to long-standing trends of gradual decline in most regions of the world in most plausible futures. However, certain regions are likely to experience continued high or increasing levels of violent conflict (in particular, the area stretching from the Maghreb through South Asia). A handful of plausible, though extreme, scenarios could also produce a substantial spike in the likelihood of conflict globally, leading to levels of violence approaching (although not reaching) the worst periods since World War II. This report recommends five indicators as the most important sources of warning that conflict trends may be increasing. ,These findings should help inform U.S. defense decisions concerning long-term investments, such as major weapons systems and broad force structure. They also can help the Army to make decisions related to such issues as leader development and contingency access. |
目录 |
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主题 | Democracy ; Global Security ; International Diplomacy ; Low-Intensity Conflict ; Military Force Planning ; Threat Assessment |
URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1177.html |
来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/523381 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stephen Watts,Bryan Frederick,Jennifer Kavanagh,et al. A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning. 2017. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
RAND_RR1177.pdf(1405KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
1505217213302.jpg(3KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | ![]() 浏览 |
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