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There has been a significant decline in the incidence of wars between states over the past several decades. The incidence of intrastate violence, on the other hand, appears to have stabilized following a decline in the aftermath of the Cold War. There is little consensus on the causes of these changes in conflict patterns. The critical question for policymakers is whether the current conflict patterns represent a permanent shift or a temporary aberration. This report explores this question through an extensive review of the literature on armed conflicts and global strategic trends to determine the possible reasons for the change in conflict patterns and to assess the potential for a change in these patterns that might portend increased propensity toward state-on-state conflicts. This report is likely to be of use for developing leading indicators of conflicts or constructing future scenarios for war games or defense planning.

• Part One

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

• Part Two

  • Chapter Two

    Introduction to Interstate Conflict

  • Chapter Three

    Democracy and Conflict

  • Chapter Four

    Economic Interdependence and Conflict

  • Chapter Five

    Wealth and Conflict

  • Chapter Six

    Demographic and Social Changes

  • Chapter Seven

    International Organizations

  • Chapter Eight

    Territorial Integrity and Conflict

  • Chapter Nine

    Nuclear Weapons

  • Chapter Ten

    Technology and Conflict

  • Chapter Eleven

    U.S. Hegemony, Primacy, and Conflict

  • Chapter Twelve

    Realist Factors

• Part Three

  • Chapter Thirteen

    Introduction to Intrastate Conflict

  • Chapter Fourteen

    State Capacity

  • Chapter Fifteen

    Demography

  • Chapter Sixteen

    Ethnic and Sectarian Factors and Conflict

  • Chapter Seventeen

    Repression

  • Chapter Eighteen

    Democracy, Democratization, and Political Inclusion

  • Chapter Nineteen

    Economic Factors

  • Chapter Twenty

    Competition over Natural Resources

  • Twenty-One

    Legacies of Prior Conflict

  • Twenty-Two

    Technology

  • Twenty-Three

    International Norms on Peacemaking and Peaceful Conflict Resolution