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Analysts Should Consider 11 Key Factors When Attempting to Determine Possible Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements

• Within the strategic context, analysts should consider NATO's relative overall capabilities, NATO's relative local capabilities, Russian perceptions of NATO's intentions, and Russian perceptions of NATO's willingness to defend its members against aggression.
• Within the Russian domestic context, analysts should consider the extent of threats to regime legitimacy, the power and preferences of Russia's elite, and the preferences of Vladimir Putin.
• Analysts should consider the following factors related to the characteristics of the posture enhancements: effect on strategic stability, effect on conventional capability, location, and extend of infrastructure improvements.

Posture Enhancements Currently Being Implemented Are Likely to Further Strengthen an Already Robust NATO Deterrent

• Several factors suggest a very low Russian incentive to attack NATO, including Russia's perceptions of NATO's willingness to fight to defend its members against a Russian attack; limited Russian political or strategic interest in any current NATO territory, including the Baltic States; and limited domestic threats to the security of the regime in Moscow. Additional NATO posture enhancements have the potential to further limit this incentive.
• However, many Russian policymakers appear to have increasingly concluded that the strategic goals of the United States and NATO are not compatible with the long-term security of the current regime in Moscow. While a direct attack on NATO is unlikely, Russia is likely to explore additional avenues to signal its displeasure with ongoing U.S. and NATO activities.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is in the process of implementing posture enhancements to increase capabilities on its eastern flank, and the escalation in tensions between Russia and NATO since 2014 has led analysts to propose measures that are even more extensive. However, Russia's likely reactions to such posture enhancements remain understudied. In this report, we develop a framework that analysts can use to assess likely Russian reactions to ongoing and proposed NATO posture enhancements in Europe. We develop this framework by assessing Russian strategic writing, the broader international relations literature, and the history of post–Cold War interactions between Russia and NATO. Our analysis suggests that Russian reactions will depend on 11 key factors that capture the strategic context, the Russian domestic context, and the characteristics of the proposed posture enhancements. We then illustrate how this framework can be applied in practice by assessing Russia's potential reactions to both planned and proposed enhancements. These assessments highlight the importance of clear analysis of Russian perceptions of NATO's intentions and commitment, domestic threats to the Russian regime, and the cost sensitivity of the Russian leadership.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Current, Planned, and Proposed Postures in Europe

• Chapter Three

  Factors Affecting Russian Decisionmaking

• Chapter Four

  Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements

• Chapter Five

  Conclusion

• Appendix A

  Russian Decisionmaking in Key Cases

• Appendix B

  B. Key NATO and Russian Interactions, 1995–2015