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Despite Modest Scientific Evidence, the Data Support a Few Conclusions

• Of more than 100 combinations of policies and outcomes, surprisingly few have been the subject of methodologically rigorous investigation. Notably, research into four of the outcomes examined was essentially unavailable at the time of the review, with three of these four outcomes representing issues of particular concern to gun owners or gun industry stakeholders.
• Available evidence supports the conclusion that child-access prevention laws, or safe storage laws, reduce self-inflicted fatal or nonfatal firearm injuries among youth, as well as unintentional firearm injuries or deaths among children.
• There is moderate evidence that background checks reduce firearm suicides and firearm homicides, as well as limited evidence that these policies can reduce overall suicide and violent crime rates. There is moderate evidence that stand-your-ground laws may increase homicide rates and limited evidence that the laws increase firearm homicides in particular.
• There is moderate evidence that violent crime is reduced by laws prohibiting the purchase or possession of guns by individuals who have a history of involuntary commitment to a psychiatric facility. There is limited evidence these laws may reduce total suicides and firearm suicides.
• There is limited evidence that a minimum age of 21 for purchasing firearms may reduce firearm suicides among youth.

This report was superseded by a revised, updated edition in April 2020.

The RAND Corporation's Gun Policy in America initiative is a unique attempt to systematically and transparently assess available scientific evidence on the real effects of firearm laws and policies. Good gun policies require consideration of many factors, including the law and constitutional rights, the interests of various stakeholder groups, and information about the likely effects of different laws or policies on a range of outcomes. This report seeks to provide the third — objective information about what the scientific literature examining gun policy can tell us about the likely effects of laws. The study synthesizes the available scientific data on the effects of various firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, participation in hunting and sport shooting, and other outcomes.

By highlighting where scientific evidence is accumulating, the authors hope to build consensus around a shared set of facts that have been established through a transparent, nonpartisan, and impartial review process. In so doing, they also illuminate areas where more and better information could make important contributions to establishing fair and effective gun policies.

• Part A

  Introduction and Methods

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Methods

• Part B

  Evidence on the Effects of 13 Policies

  • Chapter Three

    Background Checks

  • Chapter Four

    Bans on the Sale of Assault Weapons and High-Capacity Magazines

  • Chapter Five

    Stand-Your-Ground Laws

  • Chapter Six

    Prohibitions Associated with Mental Illness

  • Chapter Seven

    Lost or Stolen Firearm Reporting Requirements

  • Chapter Eight

    Licensing and Permitting Requirements

  • Chapter Nine

    Firearm Sales Reporting and Recording Requirements

  • Chapter Ten

    Child-Access Prevention Laws

  • Chapter Eleven

    Surrender of Firearms by Prohibited Possessors

  • Chapter Twelve

    Minimum Age Requirements

  • Chapter Thirteen

    Concealed-Carry Laws

  • Chapter Fourteen

    Waiting Periods

  • Chapter Fifteen

    Gun-Free Zones

• Part C

  Supplementary Essays on Gun Policy Mechanisms and Context

  • Chapter Sixteen

    The Relationship Between Firearm Availability and Suicide

  • Chapter Seventeen

    The Relationship Between Firearm Prevalence and Violent Crime

  • Chapter Eighteen

    Firearm and Ammunition Taxes

  • Chapter Nineteen

    Mental Health Care Access and Suicide

  • Chapter Twenty

    Education Campaigns and Clinical Interventions for Promoting Safe Storage

  • Chapter Twenty-One

    Restricting Access to Firearms Among Individuals at Risk for or Convicted of Domestic Violence or Violent Crime

  • Chapter Twenty-Two

    Mass Shootings

  • Chapter Twenty-Three

    Defensive Gun Use

  • Chapter Twenty-Four

    The Effects of the 1996 National Firearms Agreement in Australia on Suicide, Violent Crime, and Mass Shootings

• Part D

  Summary of Findings and Recommendations

  • Chapter Twenty-Five

    Summary and Conclusions

• Appendix A

  Methodological Challenges to Identifying the Effects of Gun Policies

• Appendix B

  Source Data Used to Produce the Forest Plot Figures