全球智库信息集成服务系统

Engagement

• The U.S. Air Force (USAF) would be wise to maintain a steady level of engagement with Pakistan Air Force (PAF), rather than trying to scramble for a rapid engagement when the next cycle begins. The USAF should prepare for the next cycle — now. This can and should be done in a manner which does not jeopardize the growing security engagement between the United States and India. But if past is prologue to the future, there will likely be another such turn of the wheel with Pakistan, and it may well arrive (as it has the past two times) quite literally overnight.

Future Trends

• The USAF should understand and accept its role as "loss leader" of U.S.-Pakistan relations. The USAF should not expect its relationship with PAF to be one of institutional parity: PAF has less to offer the USAF than vice versa, while the benefits provided by Pakistan (human intelligence for counterterrorism, facilitation of Taliban reconciliation, nonproliferation cooperation, and policy guarantees of regional stability) will accrue to other parts of the U.S. security establishment.

As U.S. military action in Afghanistan stabilizes at levels well below the Operation Enduring Freedom peak, the security relationship between the United States and Pakistan will enter a new phase. Formulating a strategy for future engagement requires a deep understanding of Pakistan's own security imperatives — i.e., the factors that determine what types of partnership are realistic, and the geopolitical and historical forces that shape Pakistan's cooperation with the United States. This report examines such factors from a variety of angles: It discusses the historical context of U.S.-Pakistan engagement, highlighting the two prior cycles of deep partnership and precipitous downgrade; it outlines Pakistan's strategic calculus with five nations (India, China, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, and Iran), which inform most important security decisions, and highlights Pakistan's overarching focus on potential conflict with India; and it looks at future trends for partnering, while examining several potential scenarios. A key finding presented is that U.S. leverage over Pakistan's security choices is limited, and that the U.S. Air Force effectively serves as the "loss leader" in the relationship. A key recommendation is for U.S. planners to be mindful of the cyclical pattern of the relationship. Given the growing security relationship between the United States and India, any future partnership with Pakistan may face a new set of challenges. If history is a guide, however, the United States would be well advised to maintain its engagement in the interim rather than ramping up next time from a standing start.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Historical Context for USAF-PAF Engagement

• Chapter Three

  Geostrategic Context: Pakistan's Nested Security Relationships

• Chapter Four

  Future Trends for USAF as the Loss Leader in the Relationship: Pathways to Success, Pitfalls to Be Avoided

• Chapter Five

  Recommendations

• Appendix A

  Pakistan Military Order of Battle: Key Elements

• Appendix B

  Security Cooperation Basics