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Development

• Statistical modeling of existing screening measures shows that fitness (i.e., Physical Ability and Stamina Test scores) and cognitive ability (i.e., Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery scores) meaningfully relate to training success for these Air Force specialties.
• A new fitness course could be cost-effective if physical fitness gains identified in our specific model scenarios (regarding course attendance and course length) are met.

Recruiting

• Recruiting gaps for HDHA specialties may include student awareness of specialty's mission and training requirements, recruiter knowledge and incentive to recruit high-quality candidates, unrealistic recruiting quotas, and structure of field developer concept.

Screening

• Factors other than those available in existing administrative data (e.g., Basic Water Skills Test) could add to the prediction of training attrition.
• We identified three screening methods for the Air Force to consider: biographical data (biodata) inventories (e.g., a set of questions about applicant's previous experiences and behaviors); structured interviews (e.g., interviews that involve application of predetermined rules for questions, observations, and evaluations); and assessment or selection course (e.g., standardized evaluation of behavior based on multiple techniques and trained observers to assess multiple knowledge, skills, abilities, and other characteristics [KSAOs]). Each of these screening methods is promising because each one can measure multiple KSAOs (versatile), has been previously used in HDHA specialties outside the Air Force (relevant), and has been linked to job success (valid).

The U.S. Air Force's special operations and combat support specialties in the enlisted force are among the highest in demand by the service yet have persistently high rates of attrition in their initial skills training, which is called "technical training" in the Air Force. These high-demand, high-attrition (HDHA) specialties include Combat Control; Explosive Ordnance Disposal; Pararescue; Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape; Special Operations Weather Team; and Tactical Air Control Party. The Air Force has conducted or sponsored several efforts to address training attrition in these specialties over the past several years, yet training attrition remains high. The reasons for high training attrition are interrelated, with size and quality of the recruiting pool, utility of screening tools, and training environment factors all playing a role.

This report addresses the broader challenges for implementing new approaches to HDHA specialty recruiting, screening, and development of Air Force candidates, and takes a holistic approach to identifying methods and tools to fill gaps in current processes.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Efforts to Improve HDHA-Specialty Training Outcomes

• Chapter Three

  Recruit Characteristics Associated with HDHA-Specialty Training Success

• Chapter Four

  Illustrative Example of an Intervention to Reduce Attrition

• Chapter Five

  Identifying Gaps in HDHA-Specialty Recruiting

• Chapter Six

  Identifying Gaps in HDHA-Specialty Screening

• Chapter Seven

  Conclusions and Implications

• Appendix A

  Current Screening Tools for Air Force HDHA Specialties

• Appendix B

  Technical Training for Air Force HDHA Specialties

• Appendix C

  Pairwise Comparisons Among Predictors and Outcomes

• Appendix D

  Training Attrition Costs and Offsets