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• Junior soldiers have lower first-term attrition when their senior enlisted leaders possess key types of experience, but more experience is not always valuable.
• Rough calculations suggest that the increased costs of leaders with typical levels of experience (versus those with the least experience) are outweighed by savings related to lower attrition among junior soldiers.
• Junior soldiers have higher levels of first-term attrition when their senior enlisted leaders have recently joined the unit.
• Three themes emerged in interviews with soldiers describing effective leaders: leaders who cared about their soldiers, leaders who effectively trained their soldiers, and leaders who were knowledgeable. These themes are well aligned with Army doctrine.
• The NCO education system does a better job than the promotion process of including and assessing the relevant attributes and competencies relevant to Army leadership.
• None of the factors considered in the promotion point process explicitly captures the extent to which an NCO is successful at mentoring and training his or her soldiers.
• The Army is likely failing to identify soldiers with leadership potential early in their careers.

Past research has placed little emphasis on how to value the experience of U.S. Army noncommissioned officers (NCOs). The authors of this report examine the relationships between the tenure, experience, and productivity of key NCO leaders and the performance of the junior soldiers they lead, with a focus on maintaining or improving leadership quality and soldier performance, as well as reducing personnel costs.

The authors find that the characteristics and experience of senior leaders are related to differences in the outcomes of junior soldiers; junior personnel have lower early-term attrition in cases in which senior leaders possess key types of experience. Having a leader with the right mix of experience can potentially generate substantial savings, but more experience is not always desirable. The authors note a concern that the Army promotion process captures only a limited amount of experience, since it considers deployment experience solely when promoting to E-5 and E-6. Recommendations to improve the promotion process are also presented.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Literature Indicates Good Leaders Can Increase Effectiveness

• Chapter Three

  Leader Experience and Soldier Performance

• Chapter Four

  Does the Army Capture Good Leaders in the Promotion Process?

• Chapter Five

  Which Soldiers Does the Army Retain?

• Chapter Six

  Conclusions and Implications

• Appendix A

  The Empirical Model and Regression Results

• Appendix B

  Noncommissioned Officer Education System Courses, 2001–2015

• Appendix C

  Interview Protocol