全球智库信息集成服务系统

• Crowd behaviour modelling (CBM) is the practice of simulating and predicting pedestrian movements within a space such as a stadium, using specialist modelling software.
• It informs the physical design of stadiums as well as the management of people and crowds within a space once stadiums are built and in use, to minimise the risk of and harm from any violent or antisocial behaviour.
• CBM can capture the complex cultural, individual and environmental differences in how people move in a space to predict how mixed crowds behave.
• CBM is most effective when it is collaborative and iterative between the experts carrying out the modelling, the client and relevant parties such as stadium security officers.
• CBM allows event planners to see how features of the environment, such as using wayfaring strategies or reducing queuing time for security, have an impact on crowd behaviour and safety.

This case study is part of a research project which RAND Europe was commissioned to undertake by Qatar University, examining violent and antisocial behaviours at football events, the factors associated with these behaviours, and strategies to prevent and reduce their occurrence. In line with the overall aim of this study, this case study offers early reflections on these topics in relation to the 2018 FIFA World Cup, held in Russia.

The aim of this case study is to explore the potential for crowd behaviour modelling (CBM) to inform crowd management strategies to minimise the risk of violent or antisocial behaviour taking place during the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, and to reduce harm if it does take place. The case study builds on evidence identified in earlier stages of the project relating to violent and antisocial behaviours at football events and factors associated with these behaviours, as well as interventions to prevent and reduce violent and antisocial behaviour at football events (Strang et al. 2018; Taylor et al. 2018).

It is based on a review of academic and grey literature, desk research on relevant tools and applications, prior experience in CBM among the RAND Europe research team, and interviews with internationally renowned experts who have experience of applying CBM.