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Significant policy-resource gaps exist

• More funding will be needed to close the gap between the 2018 U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) budget and the forces needed to implement the Trump administration's stated security and defense strategy and goals for military modernization.
• Investments should therefore be prioritized by (1) the importance of the goal to the United States and its interests, (2) the size and urgency of the gap between the capabilities required to achieve defense objectives and the forces ready and postured to provide the capabilities, and (3) the availability of realistic opportunities for the United States to close these gaps.

Investments will need to be prioritized by their importance to the United States and its interests

• Tier 1 priorities are to improve U.S. nuclear deterrence; achieve limited ballistic missile defense; and counter terrorist threats to the U.S. homeland, particularly those using weapons of mass destruction.
• Tier 2 priorities should begin with deterring or defeating Russian aggression in the NATO Baltic states; countering North Korean ballistic missile and artillery threats, improving the U.S. ability to evacuate its nationals from combat zones, and seizing and securing nuclear weapons if North Korea collapses; and deterring or defeating Chinese aggression against Taiwan if needed.
• Tier 3 priorities should include potential threats that require ongoing attention, but that are less likely to cause a near-term disaster for the United States or its allies and interests. These priorities include countering Chinese coercion of U.S. allies and partners; countering hostile Iranian actions; and continuing to degrade violent extremist organizations.

Significant gaps exist in the ability of the United States and its allies to deter or defeat aggression that could threaten national interests. For example, NATO members Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania remain vulnerable to Russian invasion. South Korea is vulnerable to North Korea's artillery. China's neighbors — especially Taiwan — are vulnerable to coercion and aggression. Violent extremists continue to pose a threat in the Middle East. Solutions to these problems will take both money and time. In this report, RAND researchers analyze the specific technological, doctrinal, and budgetary gaps between the stated strategic and defense policies of the United States and the resources and capabilities that would be required to implement those policies successfully.

Absent a change in administration policy or a new political consensus in favor of a defense buildup, there will not be enough resources to close the gap between stated U.S. aims and the military capabilities needed to achieve them. This leaves the Trump administration and this Congress with some difficult choices. The United States could decide to focus primarily on its own security, devoting to allies and partners only those forces and capabilities that could be easily spared. At the other end of the spectrum, the Trump administration could take the central role in defending U.S. allies against aggression by Russia, China, and other potential adversaries. The hard-to-find middle ground would be to provide the military with sufficient capabilities to ensure that aggression that imperils U.S. interests in critical regions would fail while helping allies build the capacity to do more for their own and the collective defense.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  U.S. Military Missions and How to Prioritize Them

• Chapter Three

  Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltics

• Chapter Four

  Countering North Korean Provocations and Weapons of Mass Destruction

• Chapter Five

  Deterring an Aggressive China in the Western Pacific

• Chapter Six

  The Greater Middle East and Afghanistan

• Chapter Seven

  Matching Policy to Resources

• Chapter Eight

  Conclusions and Recommendations

• Appendix

  Russia Changes the Equation: A Brief Overview of U.S.-Russia Relations