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RAND Europe, working in collaboration with Jacobs, SYSTRA and Mott MacDonald, were commissioned by Transport for London (TfL) to develop a new strategic travel model for London, termed the New Demand Model (NDM). This will be used to develop strategic land use and transport policy scenarios to assist with prioritisation and supporting the case for sustained investment of billions of pounds in London's transport systems. The new model is expected to enhance TfL's strategic modelling capability and reflect recent behavioural changes identified by the 'Drivers of Demand' study in London.

This report documents RAND Europe's work to develop new mode-destination choice models for the NDM.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Modelling assumptions

• Chapter Three

  Data

• Chapter Four

  Nested logit model specification

• Chapter Five

  Nested logit model results

• Chapter Six

  Nested logit model validation

• Chapter Seven

  Cross-nested logit models

• Chapter Eight

  Summary and recommendations

• Appendix A

  Tour building note

• Appendix B

  Model parameter results

• Appendix C

  Cost skims for example OD pairs