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Perceptions of elites, Russia, shared goals all affect decisionmaking

• Public opposition could restrain national leaders from participating in an operation to counter Russian aggression, but other domestic factors, such as elite consensus and an electorally secure governing coalition, might overcome public opposition.
• Countries that perceive Russia as ambitious, opportunistic, or threatening to their homeland are more likely to participate, while members with favorable views of Russia or lower threat perceptions are more likely to worry about Russian economic or military retaliation.
• Countries that place the greatest value on NATO's continuity are more likely to participate. However, allies are less likely to join if other major allies — particularly the United States — do not participate, if they perceive allies' goals as diverging from one another, or if they are not confident in their ability to restrain other allies from unnecessarily escalating a conflict with Russia.

Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and military operations in Eastern Ukraine have prompted renewed discussion about the possibility of a Russian attack on a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally, particularly in the Baltics. Many analysts have raised questions about whether NATO members would respond militarily to such an attack. This report contributes to U.S. defense planning by identifying 13 key factors that are likely to affect each member's decision to participate in a military response to either an unconventional or conventional Russian attack. Based on this analysis, the report recommends ways to reduce allies' vulnerability to Russian influence and increase alliance cohesion.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Factors Affecting an Ally's Decision to Provide Military Support

• Chapter Three

  Decisions to Contribute to a Military Response in Unconventional and Conventional Scenarios

• Chapter Four

  Possible Modes of Russian Influence on Allies' Decisionmaking

• Chapter Five

  Conclusion and Recommendations to Promote Contributions to Collective Defense