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• The authors describe the development of the TFBL model and results of model excursions that illustrate how the model functions. These excursions include two types of retention scenarios, the impact of production on pilot inventory levels, and the impact of optimizing production levels.
• The results showed that reallocating production while maintaining the planned Total Force production level has a significant effect on reducing the shortage in the regular Air Force while combating lower retention levels when accounting for major airline hiring.

It has become more complex for the U.S. Air Force to manage its rated officer population, due to the lengthy and costly training pipelines, declining availability of aircraft to train the rated officer force, and the effects of external factors that affect the retention of Air Force rated officers.

The Air Force has always had to manage the rated officers in the regular Air Force, balancing the flows into the force, distributing them among the various rated officer career fields and aircraft, and monitoring the flows out of the force. However, it has not had to manage the flows into the two reserve components, the Air Force Reserve and the Air National Guard, quite as diligently because the supply of rated officers into those components was both abundant and cheap. Recent changes, such as the overall reduction in the number of aircraft, the pending elimination of the A-10 aircraft, the arrival of the F-35 aircraft, and the increase in civilian pilot hiring from the major airlines, have made it more challenging to manage rated officers in all components.

As a result, it has become increasingly important to adopt an overall — or Total Force — perspective on the rated officer force. In this report, the authors document efforts to develop a long-term career field planning model for all rated officers across the Total Force — the Total Force Blue Line model — that can be used to assess policy alternatives and inform decisionmaking in managing the rated officer force.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Total Force Blue Line Model Overview

• Chapter Three

  The Impact of Retention on Inventory Levels with Fixed Production

• Chapter Four

  The Impact on Inventory Levels of Optimizing Production for Pilots

• Chapter Five

  The Impact of Optimizing Production on Inventory Levels for CSOs, ABMs, and RPA Pilots

• Chapter Six

  How the Model Can Be Used to Support Rated Officer Analysis

• Appendix A

  Requirements, Fixed Production, and Upper Bounds on Production Data

• Appendix B

  TFBL Model Formulation

• Appendix C

  Research Methodology for Determining Major Airline Hiring Influence on Pilot Losses

• Appendix D

  ARP, ACP, and AvB History

• Appendix E

  Regressions