G2TT
来源类型Report
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR3180
来源IDRR-3180-AF
Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria
Samuel Charap; Elina Treyger; Edward Geist
发表日期2019-10-31
出版年2019
页码32
语种英语
结论
  • The decision to intervene in Syria in 2015 resulted from an extraordinary confluence of political drivers and military-enabling factors.
  • Three political factors emerge as primary drivers of the decision: the perception that an adverse military outcome—the collapse of the Assad regime—was imminent and that it could be prevented by intervening; the belief that this outcome would have had grave security implications; and the view that alternative means (e.g., diplomacy) had proven futile.
  • Several enabling military factors specific to Syria constituted necessary preconditions for the intervention: air access to the theater, permission to use ports and airbases, and the presence of allies on the ground.
  • Intervention short of the direct, overt use of the military seen in Syria in 2015, but greater than mere diplomacy, requires that the conflict in question present a high level of threat (as in Afghanistan), promise significant geopolitical benefits (as in Libya), or demonstrate moderate levels of both (as in Syria pre-2015).
  • Russia is unlikely to intervene on a scale comparable to the 2015 action in Syria in any of the other three countries examined in the report—Libya, Yemen, and Afghanistan. The drivers for such an action are currently absent.
  • However, should the drivers that were present in Syria emerge, Russia is likely to increase its involvement.
  • The threshold for interventions of a smaller scale could plausibly be met in a variety of country settings, which suggests that there are likely to be more of these in the future.
摘要

Russia's 2015 military intervention in Syria's civil war took many by surprise and raised questions about the potential for similar actions in other conflicts outside of post-Soviet Eurasia. The authors of this report assess where and under what conditions Moscow could intervene again by analyzing the factors that drive Russian decisionmaking on intervention. In addition to the 2015 intervention in Syria, they examine four smaller-scale interventions in conflicts outside of Russia's immediate neighborhood: Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Syria itself before 2015.

,

The analysis demonstrates that Moscow's decision to intervene in Syria in 2015 resulted from an extraordinary confluence of political drivers and military conditions. This set of circumstances is very unlikely to be replicated elsewhere. Indeed, the drivers for an intervention on a scale comparable to the 2015 action in Syria are absent in any of the other three countries examined in the report. However, the other cases that were considered in this report suggest that the conditions for intervention short of direct, overt use of the military, but greater than mere diplomacy, are more commonplace: The conflict in question presents a high level of threat to Russian security (as in Afghanistan), promises a high level of geopolitical benefit for Moscow (as in Libya), or demonstrates moderate levels of both (as in Syria pre-2015). That threshold could plausibly be met in a variety of country settings, which suggests that there are likely to be more of these smaller-scale interventions in the future.

目录 Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria | RAND
Loading…
主题Afghanistan ; Decisionmaking ; Libya ; Military Strategy ; North Atlantic Treaty Organization ; Russia ; Syria ; United States Air Force ; Warfare and Military Operations ; Yemen
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3180.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/523927
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Samuel Charap,Elina Treyger,Edward Geist. Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria. 2019.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
RAND_RR3180.pdf(499KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
x1572523658651.jpg.p(3KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Samuel Charap]的文章
[Elina Treyger]的文章
[Edward Geist]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Samuel Charap]的文章
[Elina Treyger]的文章
[Edward Geist]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Samuel Charap]的文章
[Elina Treyger]的文章
[Edward Geist]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: RAND_RR3180.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
文件名: x1572523658651.jpg.pagespeed.ic._TqjXUYWgX.jpg
格式: JPEG

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。