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MANPADS targeting of civilian aircraft associated with intrastate conflict

• Historically, MANPADS have been used to target airliners overwhelmingly in conflict settings, primarily those of higher intensity.
• Russia and China not only possess the most MANPADS, they are the two states historically most willing to sell them to countries of questionable internal stability.
• Attacks on civilian aircraft in general are associated with a 1.4-percent decrease in gross domestic product.
• Multiple mitigation options can be used to reduce the risk of an attack. Employing a multi-layered approach involving several options should be pursued as part of a wider strategy to lower risk.

Since 1975, upwards of 60 civilian aircraft have been hit by surface-to-air missile platforms known as man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), resulting in the deaths of over 1,000 civilians. Terrorist groups like al-Qaeda, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and Lebanese Hezbollah are thought to possess MANPADS, presenting an ongoing concern for civilian air travel in the modern political climate. Although a MANPADS attack on a civilian aircraft has not been attempted since 2007, the threat of MANPADS attacks remains, and so does the need to develop a better understanding of the security risks posed by these systems. The loss of life from a MANPADS incident could be severe and have grave international repercussions. The research summarized in this report aims to provide analysis of the key issues of this international security challenge.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Characterizing MANPADS

• Chapter Three

  Historical Use of MANPADS

• Chapter Four

  NSAG Risk Index

• Chapter Five

  MANPADS Stockpiles and State Fragility

• Chapter Six

  Economic Consequences of MANPADS Attacks

• Chapter Seven

  MANPADS Mitigation Options

• Chapter Eight

  Conclusions

• Appendix A

  RAND Database of MANPADS Attacks

• Appendix B

  Country Stockpiles

• Appendix C

  Sensitivity Analyses of Economic Findings