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• Brexit uncertainty likely had negative economic consequences for the UK since the EU referendum in 2016.
• It is estimated that by the end of the initially planned transition period in 2020, UK GDP could be 0.17 percentage points lower compared to the baseline where the UK is not in a renegotiation period about its future trading relation with the EU. This is the equivalent of a GDP loss of about $5.5bn.
• If the renegotiation period lasts longer, by 2025 the estimated effect is a 0.39 percentage point lower UK GDP compared to the baseline (about $14bn).

This report examines the potential economic implications of prolonged trade policy uncertainty associated with the renegotiation period between the UK and EU after Brexit. Specifically, the report focuses on the effects on UK trade and foreign direct investment.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  The UK since the vote to leave the EU

• Chapter Three

  Estimating the macroeconomic implications of trade policy uncertainty related to the ongoing UK–EU renegotiation period

• Chapter Four

  Conclusions — The end of the beginning

• Appendix A

  The macroeconomic model

• Appendix B

  GDP effects for the EU-27