G2TT
来源类型Report
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR4265
来源IDRR-4265-RC
The End of the Beginning: Assessing the potential economic implications of prolonged UK–EU trade policy uncertainty
Charles P. Ries; Marco Hafner; Clement Fays; Erez Yerushalmi
发表日期2020-01-28
出版年2020
页码46
语种英语
结论
  • Brexit uncertainty likely had negative economic consequences for the UK since the EU referendum in 2016.
  • It is estimated that by the end of the initially planned transition period in 2020, UK GDP could be 0.17 percentage points lower compared to the baseline where the UK is not in a renegotiation period about its future trading relation with the EU. This is the equivalent of a GDP loss of about $5.5bn.
  • If the renegotiation period lasts longer, by 2025 the estimated effect is a 0.39 percentage point lower UK GDP compared to the baseline (about $14bn).
摘要

This report examines the potential economic implications of prolonged trade policy uncertainty associated with the renegotiation period between the UK and EU after Brexit. Specifically, the report focuses on the effects on UK trade and foreign direct investment.

目录
  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    The UK since the vote to leave the EU

  • Chapter Three

    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of trade policy uncertainty related to the ongoing UK–EU renegotiation period

  • Chapter Four

    Conclusions — The end of the beginning

  • Appendix A

    The macroeconomic model

  • Appendix B

    GDP effects for the EU-27

主题Econometric Models ; Economic Analysis Methodology ; European Union ; International Trade ; Security Cooperation ; United Kingdom
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR4265.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/523995
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Charles P. Ries,Marco Hafner,Clement Fays,等. The End of the Beginning: Assessing the potential economic implications of prolonged UK–EU trade policy uncertainty. 2020.
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