Expert predictions of the advent of quantum computers vary widely
Quantum computers capable of cryptographic applications are expected, on average, to be approximately 15 years away — roughly 2033. However, experts assess that both earlier and much later development are possible.
PQC standards are only a few years off, but implementation might happen too slowly to avert security losses
Standard protocols for PQC are expected to be drafted and released within the next five years. However, the transition necessary to implement the standard protocols and mitigate the vulnerability from quantum computing is expected to take decades.
If adequate implementation of PQC has not taken place by the time capable quantum computers are developed, it may become impossible to ensure secure authentication and communication privacy without major, disruptive changes to our infrastructure
Consumers' low awareness of quantum computing risks makes them unlikely to demand protective policy changes
Consumers have low awareness of quantum computing generally, as well as low awareness of the risks associated with its advent. This is true across demographics, even among the most informed age group, 18-to-35-year-olds.
Consumer responses to the potential threats of quantum computing show logical consistency &mash; the more proximate the threat, the greater the response
Nevertheless, the lack of consumer awareness of quantum computing and associated risks implies that consumers will likely not be the primary drivers for policy change on this issue. As a result, federal leadership will be needed to advocate for consumer protection.
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Securing Communications in the Quantum Computing Age: Managing the Risks to Encryption | RAND
