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The USCG captures only actual activity

• The USCG captures its actual activity but not data that can indicate priorities or what should have been done, so prioritizing demand for any future scenario remains elusive.

The most-favorable options in some demand scenarios have roughly the same total numbers of RW and FW aircraft as the current fleet

• Because none of the demand scenarios eliminated any specific types of demand, the best fleet often looks like the current fleet.

Recapitalizing RW assets with more-capable assets appears to be a good option

• This is true even if slightly fewer assets are procured.

Incorporating UASs is particularly cost-effective for demand scenarios with detection and monitoring activities

• UASs will likely be a major element of the force structure. In many demand scenarios, fleets with UASs appear to be the most cost-effective, although future UAS costs are uncertain. However, fleets with UASs could be riskier and less flexible than fleets with additional manned aircraft because UASs cannot do everything manned aircraft can.

The medium-range UAS (MUAS) appears to be effective

• This assumes that MUASs would have an appropriate wide-area sensor package that could be integrated. Surveillance missions especially must be achievable with UASs. If MUASs cannot meet this requirement, a larger UAS or FW manned asset will be required.

The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) uses a fleet of fixed-wing (FW) and rotary-wing (RW) aircraft to conduct a variety of missions. That fleet's composition is now aging, with the RW aircraft nearing their ends of life. As the air fleet ages and needs to be replaced, the USCG can reassess its airpower needs for its current missions and its possible future operational requirements. Researchers examined USCG airpower⁠—specifically, what mixes of airpower can help the USCG execute its variety of missions across the entire geographic domain for operations in the next 30 years.

To address this question, the authors developed a scenario based on current demand for USCG missions, then a set of alternative demand scenarios. They also developed alternative air fleet options—a mix of FW and RW aircraft, as well as unmanned aircraft systems (UASs)—to model these aircraft's cost-informed effectiveness in meeting the demand in each scenario. The authors then modeled how each fleet option performed in each of the scenarios. The Cost-Informed Analysis of Fleet Effectiveness model incorporated USCG cost and performance data to measure performance and relative cost with a given fleet–demand scenario combination. This report should be of interest to the USCG as it considers recapitalization options for its current fleet of FW and RW aircraft. The work presented here could serve as the foundation for an analysis of alternatives and to make judgments about the validity of different recapitalization options, including the need for an expanded fleet of USCG UASs.

• Chapter One

  Objective, Background, Methodology, and Report Outline

• Chapter Two

  Baseline Demand and Mission-Tasks

• Chapter Three

  Current and Future Aircraft Fleets

• Chapter Four

  Analysis of Aircraft Fleet Costs

• Chapter Five

  Future Demand Scenario Alternatives

• Chapter Six

  Quantifying Candidate Fleet Effectiveness Through Future Demand Scenarios

• Chapter Seven

  Conclusions and Recommendations

• Appendix A

  The CAFÉ Model: Purpose, Formulation, Implementation, and Additional Assumptions

• Appendix B

  USCG Aircraft Fleet Acquisition Cost Investments

• Appendix C

  Details on Mission-Task Development

• Appendix D

  The Numbers of Aircraft and Hours Required to Accomplish Each Mission-Task

• Appendix E

  Aircraft Needed to Meet Minimum Requirement Levels