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A steady increase in the integration of AI in military systems is likely

• The various forms of AI have serious ramifications for warfighting applications.
• AI will present new ethical questions in war, and deliberate attention can potentially mitigate the most-extreme risks.
• Despite ongoing United Nations discussions, an international ban or other regulation on military AI is not likely in the near term.

The United States faces significant international competition in military AI

• Both China and Russia are pursuing militarized AI technologies.
• The potential proliferation of military AI to other state and nonstate actors is another area of concern.

The development of military AI presents a range of risks that need to be addressed

• Ethical risks are important from a humanitarian standpoint.
• Operational risks arise from questions about the reliability, fragility, and security of AI systems.
• Strategic risks include the possibility that AI will increase the likelihood of war, escalate ongoing conflicts, and proliferate to malicious actors.

The U.S. public generally supports continued investment in military AI

• Support depends in part on whether the adversary is using autonomous weapons, the system is necessary for self-defense, and other contextual factors.
• Although perceptions of ethical risks can vary according to the threat landscape, there is broad consensus regarding the need for human accountability.
• The locus of responsibility should rest with commanders.
• Human involvement needs to take place across the entire life cycle of each system, including its development and regulation.

The authors of this report examine military applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and consider the ethical implications. The authors survey the kinds of technologies broadly classified as AI, consider their potential benefits in military applications, and assess the ethical, operational, and strategic risks that these technologies entail. After comparing military AI development efforts in the United States, China, and Russia, the authors examine those states' policy positions regarding proposals to ban or regulate the development and employment of autonomous weapons, a military application of AI that arms control advocates find particularly troubling. Finding that potential adversaries are increasingly integrating AI into a range of military applications in pursuit of warfighting advantages, they recommend that the U.S. Air Force organize, train, and equip to prevail in a world in which military systems empowered by AI are prominent in all domains. Although efforts to ban autonomous weapons are unlikely to succeed, there is growing recognition among states that risks associated with military AI will require human operators to maintain positive control in its employment. Thus, the authors recommend that Air Force, Joint Staff, and other Department of Defense leaders work with the State Department to seek greater technical cooperation and policy alignment with allies and partners, while also exploring confidence-building and risk-reduction measures with China, Russia, and other states attempting to develop military AI. The research in this report was conducted in 2017 and 2018. The report was delivered to the sponsor in October 2018 and was approved for distribution in March 2020.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  The Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence

• Chapter Three

  Risks of Military Artificial Intelligence: Ethical, Operational, and Strategic

• Chapter Four

  Military Artificial Intelligence in the United States

• Chapter Five

  Military Artificial Intelligence in China

• Chapter Six

  Military Artificial Intelligence in Russia

• Chapter Seven

  Assessment of U.S. Public Attitudes Regarding Military Artificial Intelligence

• Chapter Eight

  Findings and Recommendations

• Appendix A

  Expert Interviews: Methods, Data, and Analysis

• Appendix B

  Public Attitudes Survey: Methods, Data, and Analysis