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来源类型 | Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2849.5 |
来源ID | RR-2849/5-AF |
Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force | |
Shira Efron; Kurt Klein; Raphael S. Cohen | |
发表日期 | 2020-05-11 |
出版年 | 2020 |
语种 | 英语 |
结论 | Global average surface temperature has been rising steadily
Arctic ice melt will expand maritime access and will increase economic activity as previously unreachable natural resources become extractable
Rising seas and the increase in frequency and strength of storm surges threaten low-elevation coastal zones
Extreme weather events can cause migration, disease, and instability
Water-related conflict has been on the rise and is likely to continue increasing
Megacities have grown in number, size, and importance, and these dense urban environments complicate military missions for advanced militaries
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摘要 | Climate and geography shape where and why conflicts occur. As part of an effort to characterize the future of warfare in 2030, this report assesses the implications of six key climate and geographical trends: the steady rise of global temperatures, the opening of the Arctic, sea level rise, more-frequent and more-extreme weather events, growing water scarcity, and the development of megacities. The ramifications of each trend are analyzed for how they are likely to affect security in specific areas. Implications for the U.S. Air Force are also considered. While these trends on their own are unlikely to lead to state collapse or interstate conflict, they are nonetheless threat multipliers and are likely to exacerbate existing problems and fuel instability around the world. This suggests that the U.S. military, including the Air Force, will have to deal with continued demand for counterterrorism and stability operations and with increased demand for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions in the years to come. These trends could also shape where and how the Air Force trains and operates as bases are affected by extreme temperatures and flooding from sea level rise. |
目录 |
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主题 | Arctic Region ; Global Climate Change ; Infectious Diseases ; Meteorology and Weather ; United States Air Force ; Warfare and Military Operations ; Water Supply |
URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2849z5.html |
来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/524089 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shira Efron,Kurt Klein,Raphael S. Cohen. Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force. 2020. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
RAND_RR2849z5.pdf(8493KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
x1598441768082.jpg.p(6KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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